What would a Trump victory mean for EU-China relations?

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Recent polls show Republican candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris neck and neck in the election. November 5 race for the American presidency, and Europe is preparing for all possible scenarios and consequences.

According to researchers and political analysts consulted by Euronews, a Trump victory would likely mean less predictability, less cooperation with global allies such as the EU and more trade tensions with China.

Europe should expect more tariffs, sanctions and pressure to decouple [cut ties] originally from China, Ceren Ergenc, a researcher at the Center for European Policy Studies, said in an interview with Euronews, but the main difference could be how the two presidential candidates will implement the measures.

“The Harris administration will take a more institutionalized way of doing things, while a Trump administration will do it in a more personalized way,” Ergenc said.

Former President Trump has previously threatened to impose tariffs on European imports, questioned NATO commitments in the event of a Russian invasion and even threatened to cut US funding to war-torn Ukraine. war.

Yet Trump's stance on China is less predictable, given his mixed remarks on Taiwan, Beijing's leadership, and trade and industrial policies.

At the end of the summer, the Republican candidate spoke about his relations with Chinese President Xi Jinping during an interview with Fox Newssaying there was “no greater critic of China than me.”

“But I respected China and President Xi and had great relations with them,” Trump added, envisaging good relations with that country in the future.

Vice President Harris, for his part, has reaffirmed U.S. support for Taiwan in previous statements and has been more outspoken about respecting human rights in China.

With Harris, “we will see a continuation of what happened with Biden, which means more coordination, more information sharing and more policy alignment, which is both positive and negative” , said Francesca Ghiretti, research director at RAND Europe, asserting that Harris would be a known and close ally, but also one who sometimes has difficulty aligning with Europe.

For Mario Esteban, the US position would not affect the EU's position on human rights in China, but it would leave the bloc more isolated globally and would also have trade implications.

“In theory, a Trump administration would be less geopolitical than a Harris administration and would push everything much further into the realm of economic protectionism,” said Esteban, a senior analyst at the Spanish think tank Elcano Royal Institute.

Trump's opposition to the climate change agenda could also strengthen the position of Europeans skeptical of the EU's own green deal, Esteban believes.

Trump-proof EU task force

A European Commission working group has in recent months analyzed post-election scenarios in the United States and their implications for Europe, including a possible escalation of tensions between Beijing and Washington.

Since 2016, when Trump was first elected president, relations between the United States and China have deteriorated, moving toward a “small yards, high fences” approach, tight restrictions on a small number of technologies with significant military potential, alongside normal economic exchanges in other areas.

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But China is, after the United States, the EU's second largest trading partner. It will therefore not be easy for Brussels to be firm towards the Asian giant, even if American pressure increases.

“There will be resistance from Europe because there are so many actors on the EU side, even within the EU there is no consensus between institutions on this question of decoupling or risk reduction. [reducing the bloc’s critical dependencies and vulnerabilities]” said Ergenc.

In recent years, China has been both the economic competitor, partner and systemic rival of the EU; Despite growing tensions, the two countries are highly dependent on each other economically.

“A Trump victory would mean that in some cases Europe would take steps to improve relations with China, Germany being the clearest case, but in others it would simply push for strategic autonomy,” said Alicia Garca Herrero, senior researcher at the Brussels-based think tank. Bruegel, told Euronews.

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In 2023, EU trade with China represented a 292,000 billion deficittelecommunications equipment and electrical machines being among the most imported goods.