The College Football Playoffs rankings debut a week from today. Does it matter where BYU lands in the first rankings? Desert News

Come Tuesday night, while most of the country is invested in who will win the presidential election, Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump college football fans will be eagerly tuning into ESPN.

A week from today, at 5:00 PM MT, the first College Football Playoff rankings for the 2024 season will be released.

The first offering is one of six rankings to be released by the CFP Committee this fall and will provide a glimpse into what the committee thinks, what it values ​​and who it prefers regarding the first-ever 12-team playoff at FBS level. .

Does placement in the first CFP poll matter?

The CFP rankings have been around for a while. Eleven years even.

And in the four-team format, early seeding in the playoff spots was quite fluid when it came to which teams ended up playing in the playoffs.

In 2014, the first year the rankings were released, the top four in the original CFP rankings were: 1. Mississippi State; 2. State of Florida; 3. Chestnut brown; 4. Ole Miss. Only one of those teams finished in the play-off. The final four teams in 2014 were: 1. Alabama; 2.Oregon; 3. State of Florida; 4. Ohio State.

Take a look at the CFP rankings over the past decade and what's especially true is that the initial rankings have frequently failed to predict which teams ultimately made it into the playoffs.

In 2015, two of the committee's initial top four made it into the final top four. The same thing happened in 2016. And 2017 and 2019.

In 2021, 2022 and 2023, only one team from the initial top four of the rankings managed to reach the play-offs.

Of course, narrowing things down to four teams is a lot different than picking 12 teams for the playoffs. Additionally, the top five ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs in the 12-team format. There were no guaranteed places in the four-team format.

All this makes the first ranking of the committees in the 12-team format so interesting. The larger format will, in theory, excuse team losses much more than the four-team format.

Do the committee's top teams in the first poll have a greater chance of making the play-offs? Well look, come December 8th.

Where could undefeated BYU land?

The committee officially ranks teams according to the following criteria:

• Won conference championships.
• Strength of the scheme.
• Outlined results.
• Comparison of results with regular opponents.

Wins and losses certainly matter. The same goes for results against ranked opponents (in that case, teams ranked in the CFP poll, whatever the latest version is).

But ultimately, the CFP committee is trying to determine the best teams, which doesn't always equate to the teams that had the best season, at least on paper.

So where might the Cougars land in the early poll?

The CFP committee does not consider the AP or Coaches Poll at all, meaning there is a chance BYU could rank higher in the CFP poll than where it currently stands.

CBS Sports Jerry Palm Projects that BYU will be ranked sixth overall, behind Oregon, Georgia, Penn State, Ohio State and Miami.

Palm writes: I haven't found a preseason prediction that would have the Cougars in the top 10 of the Big 12, let alone the entire country, but here they are. Wins over Kansas State and at SMU put them in the top 10. BYU only has one game remaining against a team currently above .500, so their margin for error isn't great.

The CFP Bracket vs. the Rankings

Wherever BYU ends up in the top rankings, what may ultimately be more important is that the Cougars win the Big 12 Conference championship.

As previously mentioned, the top five ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the 12-team format. Currently, based on the AP Poll, this would mean Oregon (Big Ten) would be the No. 1 overall seed, Miami (ACC) would be the No. 2 seed, Texas (SEC) would be the No. 3 seed, and BYU (Big 12) would be the No. 2 seed. seed. No. 4 seed.

To maintain that top 4 spot, the Cougars will have to win the Big 12 and stay ahead of the top-ranked Group of Five conference champions in the rankings. As things stand now, that would be Boise State, which is ranked No. 15 in the AP poll.

A top-four finish would mean a bye to the first round of the playoffs, which would automatically put BYU in the quarterfinals, also in a traditionally prestigious bowl (think Fiesta Bowl or Cotton Bowl. Something along those lines).

As explained by the GVB, the selection committee will assign the four highest-ranked conference champions to the Playoff Quarterfinals, hosted by bowls. This will be done taking into account historical bowl relationships and then taking into account the rankings. For example, if the Sugar Bowl hosts a Playoff Quarterfinal and the SEC Champion is ranked No. 1 and the Big 12 Champion is ranked No. 3, the SEC Champion will be assigned to the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12 Champion will be assigned elsewhere . .

The higher BYU is, the better for the Cougars. Even if they win, including the Big 12 championship. A higher initial ranking gives BYU a greater margin for error going forward this season. And in the play-offs. (The No. 1 seed will face the winner of the No. 8/9 matchup, the No. 4 seed against the winner of the No. 5/12 bout, the No. 2 seed against the No. 7/10 winner and the No. 3 seed vs. the No. 6/11 winner.

And then you just have to go into the field. Only 12 of the 133 teams at the FBS level make the playoffs. It's certainly a jump from the four-team format. Much more participation. But you can bet that many teams will be unhappy in early December to discover that they have been left out and that other teams have entered.

And it all starts next Tuesday night on ESPN.