Study predicts 260 million Americans will be overweight or obese by 2050

According to one study, approximately 260 million people in the United States will be overweight or obese in just over 20 years. new research.

The study, published in the medical journal Lancet, is one of the first to predict what the nation's obesity epidemic will be by 2050. Specifically, it suggests that 43.1 million children and adolescents and 213 million adults will be overweight or underweight. /or obesity. In 2021, 36.5 million children and adolescents and 172 million adults were affected by overweight and obesity.

New projections show that hundreds of millions of people in the United States could face health complications associated with a high body mass index (BMI), including diabetes, cancer, heart problems, breathing problems, and mental health problems. It means that there is.

Health costs of obesity The research paper points out that there are significant amounts in the United States. In 2016, medical costs attributable to obesity alone ranged from $261 billion to $481 billion.

Obesity and overweight (defined as a BMI of 30 or higher or 25 to 29.9, respectively) are among the fastest growing risk factors for premature death or disability in the United States. Research shows.

To make the new predictions, researchers at the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation created a model that uses historical data from 134 unique sources to determine trends in overweight and obesity. . These data reportedly include all major national surveillance survey data.

The study notes that overweight and obesity have been serious problems for the United States for many years. Obesity rates among adults and older adolescents have doubled over the past 30 years, and the prevalence of obesity or overweight among U.S. women ages 15 to 24 increased faster than men from 1990 to 2021.

“Obesity is a crisis across the United States,” said study co-author Dr. Marie Ng. Affiliated associate professor at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The high number of obese young people is of particular concern. According to research Young people who are obese or overweight are significantly more likely to have weight problems later in life than young people of average weight.

The study notes that some regions of the country are more likely to be affected, with southern states having a disproportionately large number of obese people. States with the highest current obesity rates are expected to continue to have high obesity rates, including Oklahoma, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Texas, West Virginia, and Kentucky. Compared to 2021, the largest increases are expected in Colorado and New Mexico.

Specifically, the study showed that in Texas, more than half of male adolescents between the ages of 15 and 24 are obese or overweight. In Mississippi, two-thirds of older adolescent women are overweight or obese. In Mississippi, 80% of adult women are overweight or obese.

The researchers note some limitations to their study. Trends can change, so past trends do not guarantee future trends. Due to a lack of data, researchers were also unable to predict obesity levels in children at the state level.

Additionally, data on overweight and obesity are limited as they are generally based on BMI. BMI is a measure that does not accurately account for differences in body structure within ethnic and racial groups. For example, people of Asian descent with a lower BMI tend to experience more severe negative weight-related health outcomes than people who identify as Caucasian.

Researchers say the current numbers of overweight and obese people show that not enough is being done at the population level to help people become healthier.

“Our analysis reveals decades of failure to address the growing overweight and obesity epidemic in the United States,” said study co-author and co-founder of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. said one Emanuela Gakidou.

Demand for obesity drugs will continue to rise, but Ng cautions that these are “not a silver bullet”. Access to drugs is limited and costs can be prohibitive.

Ng said prevention is key, starting with pregnancy and infant feeding habits. Healthier school meals, stronger regulations on junk food, and programs that make fruits and vegetables more widely available will be important, the study suggests. It is also important to create safer and more walkable areas to encourage more physical activity.

Dr. Barry Popkin, W.R. Kenan Jr. Distinguished Professor in the Department of Nutrition at the University of North Carolina, said there is evidence that population-level solutions can work if there is the will to implement them.

Popkin, who was not involved in the new study, noted that sweetened beverages often contribute to obesity. More than 40 countries and some U.S. cities, including Philadelphia and Oakland, have imposed taxes on these drinks, and many countries have seen a reduction in calorie consumption.

In Mexico, even in the first year of a peso per liter excise tax on sugar-sweetened drinks, purchases of these drinks fell by 6%. One of his studies showedwhich was further reduced by 4% the following year. People started drinking more water and consuming fewer calories. According to his research.

He said that in the first three years after the new food labels were applied in Chile, sodium consumption decreased by 22%, sugar consumption by 33% and calorie consumption by 22%.

Popkin said the challenge will be finding U.S. leaders willing to work on solutions to the obesity epidemic. He doesn't expect it to be a priority in the second Trump administration, if the first administration is any indication.

President Trump's first-term budget repeatedly proposed cutting hundreds of billions of dollars from nutrition assistance programs. Trump administration too rolled back Many of the Obama-era rules were aimed at giving children access to healthier school meals and brought back sugary drinks like chocolate milk.

“Population solutions are very effective,” Popkin said. “And obviously we need them given what’s going to happen.”