HPC simulations at the LRZ explore the behavior and hazards of successive earthquakes

9 December 2024 – Leading universities in Munich have a long-term partnership working on earthquake modeling and simulation at the LRZ. Recently, the team used HPC combined with monitoring data to better understand the differences between large and small earthquakes.

A supercomputer simulation of a 3D, multi-scale, multi-fault earthquake that cascades through more than 700 fractures and triggers a major fault, revealing that small and large earthquakes do not follow the same rules. Earthquakes vary in size, with the largest and most complex being also the most dangerous. In their latest research, Gabrielle and her collaborators used modeling to determine whether information cleaned from smaller, more frequent events can be scaled to better understand larger events. Image credit: Jennifer Matthews, UC San Diego.

In the past decade, more than 80,000 people have died globally due to earthquakes. Advances in early warning systems and improved building codes have reduced the number of earthquake casualties compared to the longer historical earthquake record, but scientists, engineers and government officials all recognize that much more needs to be done to improve resilience to these sudden and violent natural disasters. .

Dr. Alice Agnes Gabriel, a professor at Ludwig Maximilians University Munich (LMU) and the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), has dedicated her research efforts to understanding earthquakes at a fundamental level. She and her collaborators at the Technical University of Munich (TUM), led by Dr. Michael Bader, use high-performance computing (HPC) at the Leibniz Supercomputing Center (LRZ) to model earthquake dynamics and propagation under a variety of conditions, including the risk of subsequent tsunamis.

Recently, Gabriel and her colleagues ran a set of simulations focused on understanding differences in earthquake behavior and intensity based on fault size and how so-called “cascading” earthquakes can follow an initial large quake in unpredictable ways.

“By having access to larger HPC systems, we can go beyond these very large tracks that represent a historical or recent earthquake,” Gabriel said. “We can do more simulations that focus on exploring uncertainties and incorporating more complex physics into the process. In the past, we have focused on studying earthquakes and tsunamis in our simulations, but recently we have focused more heavily on fracture mechanics, which is an engineering field that we are trying to understand better.” In the geophysical context.

Understand earthquake dynamics broadly

Earthquakes begin when two or more tectonic plates beneath the Earth's surface are unable to move smoothly against each other, building up pressure until the rock layers eventually give way and the built-up pressure is quickly released. Plates can rub against each other laterally (slip fault earthquakes), or part of one plate can be pushed beneath another (subduction earthquake). Subduction earthquakes usually trigger more violent tremors at the surface, but that only tells one part of the story.

Between simulations and sensors, scientists have a good understanding of how powerful seismic waves unleashed by earthquakes propagate through the ground and onto the surface that can shake and ultimately destroy structures. However, what is less understood are the micro-dynamics that occur deep within the Earth's surface and how that energy can spread to other faults.

While much of the tectonic energy released is transmitted in seismic waves to the surface, a significant portion of the energy is consumed to overcome subsurface friction between tectonic plates. This fracture energy can determine whether earthquakes stop or jump between weak faults within the rock and lead to what is called a “cascading” event. For example, the 2023 earthquakes near the Turkish-Syrian border cascaded from the initial 7.8-magnitude event, triggering a 7.7-magnitude earthquake from a nearby fault line just 9 hours later and more than 500 small and large aftershocks over the next day.

Gabriel's team wanted to update earthquake simulation methods to better consider the distinct physics that occur in large earthquakes separately from those that occur in small earthquakes and how these differences can affect an earthquake's destructive potential.

“In this field, we have assumed that large and small earthquakes are essentially the same, so when studying these phenomena, we assume with that assumption in mind,” she said. “By revisiting the data we collected and with the help of modeling, we began to collect evidence that might not actually follow the same rules.”

Gabriel added that researchers have access to more data on small earthquakes because they are more common, and that even today, directly collecting earthquake data tens of kilometers below the Earth's surface is impossible. To this end, the team compiled the data available to it, developed mathematical models that could more accurately express the physics that occur at different magnitudes and scales of earthquakes, and then wrote equations to update the physical behavior at different levels of the supercomputer simulation.

With the help of the SuperMUC-NG supercomputer at LRZ, the team discovered a linear scaling relationship between the released fracture energy and fault size that could improve the accuracy of future simulations and fundamental understanding of earthquakes, ultimately helping to better inform city planners. Engineers and other stakeholders are aware of the risks and impacts of successive earthquakes.

Public HPC supports the latest science

Gabrielle and her collaborators have a strong desire for high-performance computing resources, using systems in Europe, the Middle East, and North America in their research. Her long-standing relationship with LRZ staff and the enthusiastic, multi-disciplinary group at both LMU and TUM has kept her returning to use LRZ resources for over a decade.

“It's just a consistent, long-term support system. Even my students who I'm qualifying in my role at UC San Diego also use the supercomputer in Munich because our workflow is well integrated into the LRZ systems,” she said.

Gabriel pointed out that working with public utilities provides researchers with added value that is not available when using commercial cloud computing service providers. For example, she noted that projects designed to help create and maintain “data lakes,” or databases where data relevant to a topic can be stored and organized in a way that can be accessed by other researchers, can only be achieved through large, publicly funded projects like the EU-funded Geo-Inquire project. In her other role at the University of California, San Diego, she is involved in efforts to develop and deploy a so-called “Science Portal” at the San Diego Supercomputing Center (SDSC) that helps researchers more easily transfer and access data and related software hosted in research Public. amenities.

“It's that level of support that I think public HPC facilities really shine at,” she said. “Private cloud computing companies generally won't host and share large amounts of your data, let alone work on something like a science portal that's being developed with other scientists in the community. We're scientists with very specific requirements, and while some of our needs aren't immediate and commercially fruitful, However, we do work that is important to society, is interdisciplinary in nature, and benefits from data governance following open access and FAIR (Findable Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) principles.

Gabrielle and her collaborators got early access to LRZ's upcoming flagship supercomputer, SuperMUC-NG Phase 2, scheduled for full deployment in 2025. She noted that the device is well-suited to help the team further develop machine learning (ML) methods that can help the team Explore ensembles of HPC-ML simulations more efficiently instead of large and expensive simulations for a given earthquake.

Related publications: Gabriel, A. et al. (2024). “Fault size-dependent fracture energy explains multi-scale earthquakes and cascade earthquakes,” Science 385 (6707). doi: 10.1126/science.adj958

Source: Eric Geddink, Gauss Supercomputing Center (GCS)

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos