A technique for predicting where the next big earthquake will start UCR News

Scientists have devised a new way to study faults that could improve earthquake predictions, shedding light on where earthquakes start, how they spread, and where the biggest impacts could be.

UCR geologist and lead author Nick Barth on the Alpine Fault. The Australian plate is on the left. (Jesse Kearse/Kyoto University)

A paper in the journal Geology describes this method, which helps determine the origins and directions of ruptures in past earthquakes, which is valuable information for modeling future earthquake scenarios on major faults.

By studying the tiny curved dents left at the fault level after an earthquake, similar to tire marks left after a drag race, scientists can determine the direction from which earthquakes came to that location.

“Fault levels accumulate these curved scratch marks, which we didn't yet know how to look for or how to interpret,” explained UC Riverside geologist and first author of the paper Nick Barth.

Curved dents have been observed on fault surfaces after several historic ruptures including the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes in California. Computer modeling was used to ensure that the shape of the bend indicated the direction from which the earthquake came.

This study is the first to demonstrate the applicability of this method to fingerprinting the sites of prehistoric earthquakes. It can be applied to faults around the world, helping to predict the effects of potential future earthquakes and improving risk assessments globally.

“The dents indicate the direction and origin of a previous earthquake, which could give us clues about where a future earthquake might start and where it will go,” Barth said. “This is key for California, where predicting earthquake direction on faults like the San Andreas or San Jacinto could mean forecasting More accurate to its effect.

Geologist Tim Little measures curved dents on an Alpine fault. (Nick Barth/UCR)

Where an earthquake starts and where it goes can have a big impact on the intensity of shaking and the amount of time before people feel it. For example, scientists have shown that a large earthquake originating on the San Andreas fault near the Salton Sea and propagating northward would direct more damaging energy into the Los Angeles area than a closer San Andreas earthquake that travels away from Los Angeles.

Even more optimistically, such an earthquake starting farther away might allow cellular warning systems to give Angelenos a minute's warning of a tremor, potentially saving lives.

The Alpine Fault in New Zealand is known for its regular timing of large earthquakes, making it a more obvious choice for studying fault behavior. The rift is known to rupture at approximately 250-year intervals.

This study provides two valuable insights into the Alpine fault. First, the last earthquake in 1717 moved from south to north, a scenario that was designed to cause much larger tremors in populated areas. Second, it proves that large earthquakes can start on both sides of a fault, something that was not previously known.

Examples of curved scratches documented in this study. (Nick Barth/UCR)

“We can now use the techniques and expertise we developed on the Alpine Fault to examine faults in the rest of the world. Because there is a high probability of a major earthquake in Southern California in the near term, looking for these curved signs on the San Andreas Fault is an obvious goal,” Barth said. “.

Ultimately, Barth and his team hope that seismologists around the world will begin to apply this new technique to unravel the past history of their faults. Barth is particularly excited about applying this technology across California's fault network, including the notorious San Andreas Fault, to improve forecasts and preparedness for one of the most earthquake-prone areas in the United States.

“There is no doubt that this new knowledge will enhance our understanding and modeling of earthquake behavior in California and globally,” he said.

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