A new method enhances earthquake prediction by analyzing fault surface scratches

Researchers at the University of California, Riverside describe a new way to study faults that could improve earthquake prediction, shedding light on when earthquakes start and propagate.

This method studies the origins and trends of past earthquakes, which is valuable information for modeling future earthquakes on major faults.

Like tire marks left after erosion, earthquakes leave behind fault-level dents. By studying these scratches, researchers can determine the direction of earthquakes.

“Fault planes accumulate these curved scratch marks, which we didn't yet know how to look for or interpret,” explains first author Nick Barth.

Several curved cracks have been observed on fault surfaces after several historical ruptures, including the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes in California. Computer simulations confirmed that the shape of the bend indicates the direction from which the earthquake came.

The study, published in the Journal of Geology, shows that this method can be applied to fingerprint the sites of prehistoric earthquakes. The new method applies to faults around the world, improving the assessment of global earthquakes and potential future earthquakes.

“The dents indicate the direction and origin of a previous earthquake, which could give us clues about where a future earthquake might start and where it will go,” Barth said. “This is key for California, where predicting earthquake direction on faults like the San Andreas or San Jacinto could mean forecasting More accurate to its effect.

A milestone in earthquake risk prediction

The onset and propagation of an earthquake can have a significant impact on the intensity of tremors. For example, a large earthquake originating on the San Andreas Fault, near the Salton Sea, and propagating to the north would direct more harmful energy to the Los Angeles area.

Such quakes could provide cellular alert systems to give Angelenos a minute's warning before the tremor hits.

The New Zealand Alpine Fault is an ideal fault to study earthquake behavior because of its regular timing. It is known that this rift ruptures every 250 years. By using this technique on the Alpine Fault, researchers can report that the last earthquake, which occurred in 1717, moved from south to north.

Interestingly, the study revealed that large earthquakes can start on both sides of the fault.

(a) Simplified active tectonic map of the South Island of New Zealand with the Alpine Fault in red. (b) Model relating the sense of siliciclastic line curvature (e.g., convex up, convex down) to the subcentral location and direction of rupture propagation of the Alpine Fault. (c) Summary of the number and sense of convexity of curvilinear slip lines on the main slip surfaces observed in this study and the paleoseismic record extending through the earthquake portal.

“We can now use the techniques and expertise we developed on the Alpine Fault to examine faults in the rest of the world. Because there is a high probability of a major earthquake in Southern California in the near term, looking for these curved signs on the San Andreas Fault is an obvious goal,” Barth said. “.

The lead author and his colleagues are keen to use this new technique to uncover the history of their mistakes.

“There is no doubt that this new knowledge will enhance our understanding and modeling of earthquake behavior in California and globally,” Barth concludes.

Journal reference

Nicholas C. Barth, Jesse R. Kearse, Timothy A. Little, Ross J. Van Desen; Rupture direction of ancient earthquakes on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand, as recorded by curved lines. Geology 2024; 52 (12): 917-921. doi: 10.1130/G52543.1

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