US analyst stopped short of calling rally for former Pakistani PM Khan a 'complete failure'

As supporters of imprisoned former Pakistani leader Imran Khan defied a ban on public gatherings and marched towards the capital Islamabad, a politician shared screenshots of messages calling the rally a “total flop” that were allegedly published by a political analyst based in the United States. South Asia expert Michael Kugelman has denied posting the messages, which show signs of fabrication.

“PTI's final call is over,” Pakistani politician Jan Achakzai wrote alongside screenshots in a November 25 X article, referring to Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party.

His post, which has garnered more than 270,000 views, appears to contain two messages from Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based think tank The Wilson Center, who regularly comments on affairs in Pakistan (archived link).

“PTI's last appeal has become a total failure. Two days later, not a single PTI worker has arrived in Islamabad. PTI leaders are now resorting to local photo ops to hide the embarrassment. The so-called revolution is over before it even begins!” the first screenshot read.

The second shows another purported message from Kugelman saying he stood by his comments following “intimidation” from PTI-linked accounts.

Screenshot of the fake post on X taken on December 12, 2024

The screenshots – previously debunked by iVerify Pakistan – made the rounds on X and Facebook as Khan called for more supporters to join protests against his incarceration, following deadly clashes between protesters and security forces (archived link).

The former international cricketer has been jailed since August 2023, sidelined by dozens of court cases he says were set up to prevent his return to this year's election marred by allegations of rigging.

Despite a ban on public gatherings, convoys of pro-Khan protesters marched toward the capital, breaking through roadblocks and clashing with police and paramilitary forces firing volleys of rubber bullets and tear gas (archived link).

Police said on November 27 that they had arrested nearly 1,000 protesters after the crowds were cleared from the city center in a large crackdown (archived link).

Fabricated Screenshots

A search of Kugelman's X account found no record of the posts being shared online. Instead, he clarified that he never published the messages (archived link).

“This is another fabrication. Both tweets below are false. I never said any of this,” he wrote on November 25.

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Additionally, the screenshots contain features that suggest these are not authentic X-rated posts.

The posts are dated November 24, but feature the terms “Retweets” and “Quote Tweets” – which were replaced by “Repost” in September 2023 when Twitter rebranded as X (archived link).

The AFP has debunked a wave of misinformation around pro-Khan protests in Islamabad, including unrelated images of crowds in Karachi and Libya falsely shared by his supporters.

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