Clouds loom as EU member states meet to discuss relations with Britain | European Union

Nearly five years after its Brexit divorce, the EU is having second thoughts about its estranged former member state across the Channel. The union's 27 leaders will discuss relations with Britain on Thursday for the first time since the election of Keir Starmer, who wants to reset relations and end the rancor of the Brexit period.

The meeting, held at the EU summit in Brussels, is expected to be brief, part of a crowded lunch debate on EU foreign policy covering the Middle East, China, Ukraine and the return of President Donald Trump.

Nevertheless, European Council President Antnio Costa put on the agenda the issue of developing a mutually beneficial strategic relationship with the UK, especially in the areas of security and defence, while respecting the fundamental principles of a post-Brexit EU-UK relationship. Yes. The relationship is code built to avoid rewriting existing Brexit red lines.

At a cordial meeting in Downing Street last week, Starmer accepted Costa's invitation to a retreat of EU leaders on February 3 to discuss defense and security. A senior EU official said there was strong potential for an EU-UK defense deal and the February meeting would be a moment for both sides to assess whether they could move forward. Then there is the first EU-UK summit, expected in March or April, a symbolic breakthrough that could be the start of further talks.

Despite the positive vibes, there are clouds on the horizon.

Keir Starmer on the June general election campaign trail. Photo: Cameron Smith/Getty

The European Commission announced this week that it would refer Britain to the European Court of Justice in two cases. First, it was argued that the Commission had failed to protect the rights of EU citizens living in the UK. The commission said there were breaches of EU law on the free movement of people at the end of 2020, but similar complaints arose almost a decade earlier. In the second case, the Commission criticized the UK for failing to cancel its bilateral investment treaties with six EU member states. These treaties are considered illegal because they overlap and conflict with the EU's foreign investment rules.

As well as unfinished business from the past, the EU looks set to push for a difficult deal for the future. A leaked internal EU document states that the reset will only be credible if it is based on maintaining the status quo for EU fishing rights in UK waters beyond June 2026, when the current deal expires. An early understanding of the fishery is needed to facilitate discussions on other aspects being considered, according to an internal document seen by the Guardian.

Meanwhile, with red lines on both sides, there is limited room to improve trade relations economically and substantively.

Shortly before his election victory, the prime minister ruled out rejoining the EU or the single market and customs union during his lifetime. Starmer and his ministers have since repeated variations of this pledge, but this has failed to sustain headlines that the government is assembling a capitulation team of Whitehall bureaucrats to permanently whip Britain into an EU superstate. .

Reality is far from space. Experts see the government's ambitions as modest, including a veterinary convention, easier access for European touring artists and mutual recognition of professional qualifications. Researchers say the agenda is still tinkering with the edges and is unlikely to have a significant impact on economic growth.

It would be difficult to agree to even that small ambition. Making it easier for musicians to perform in Amsterdam or Berlin may seem simple, but work permits and customs declarations for instruments quickly affect the EU's sensitivities in the economic sphere.

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Likewise, before the election, Prime Minister Rachel Reeves proposed a tailored contract for the chemical industry. However, the EU has ruled out special treatment for any sector if the country is outside the single market.

And the seemingly cheery proposition of youth exchange may turn sour with the reset. The EU wants a Youth Experience scheme that would give 18-30 year olds in the UK and Europe a reciprocal right to study, live and work abroad for a few years. The plan, known as YES, is strongly supported by EU countries. The UK gave the company a number. Asked about this, Starmer told the Sun this week that there were no plans for free movement at any level. EU officials are deeply annoyed that the plan is characterized as free movement because it has time and age restrictions.

Starmer has spoken more publicly about cultural exchanges with EU leaders, but the UK has called for EU plans to waive the NHS surcharge for foreigners and allow EU students to pay tuition fees at subsidized domestic rates. I am strongly opposed to this. The plan also appears to be unhelpful to the government, which has pledged to reduce net migration, which hit a record high of 906,000 under the previous Conservative government.

A former senior EU trade official has warned that talks on the trade agenda could fail if talks on youth mobility fail to start. In a paper for Brussels think tank Bruegel, Ignacio Garca Bercero said it was urgent and essential for both sides to test their respective flexibility in this area.

So far, none of the issues of foreign policy, fishing rights or youth exchanges have received serious input from EU leaders. Officials acknowledge the need for political manipulation and oversight. That moment must arrive when the reset begins.

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