Turkey and Russia embark on delicate maneuvers on Syria after the fall of Assad

The fall of the Assad regime opens a new chapter in the complex relationship between Putin and Erdogan, with broad implications not only for Syria but also for Ukraine and the two leaders' ties to Washington.

Russia and Turkey share economic and security interests as well as an intense rivalry. The personal relationship between Putin and Erdogan often sees them both praising each other, even as they compete for political and economic gains.

There are currently only two leaders left in the world: me and Vladimir Putin, Erdogan said recently, reflecting his respect for the Kremlin leader. Putin, in turn, has often praised Erdogan's political prowess.

Russia and Turkey have backed opposing sides in Syria's civil war that began in 2011, putting them on a collision course. Tensions rose when a Turkish warplane shot down a Russian warplane near the Turkish-Syrian border in November 2015, shortly after Moscow launched its air campaign to support Assad.

The Kremlin responded with sweeping economic sanctions that halted Turkish imports, drove Turkish businesses out of the lucrative Russian market and reduced the flow of Russian tourists to Turkish resorts.

Faced with massive economic damage, Erdogan apologized months later. Soon after, Putin strongly supported him when he faced an attempted military coup in July 2016, helping to quickly warm ties.

In 2018, Moscow and Ankara negotiated a ceasefire and de-escalation deal for the rebel-held Idlib province in northwest Syria, on the border with Turkey, and sought to anchor this often violated agreement with follow-up agreements in the years to come.

But while cooperating on Syria, Moscow and Ankara also vied for influence in Libya, where Russia supported forces loyal to military commander Khalifa Hifter while Turkey supported his enemies based in Tripoli. Turkey has also aggressively sought to increase its influence in former Soviet Central Asian countries in competition with Russia and China.

In 2020, Moscow backed down when Turkey's ally Azerbaijan routed ethnic Armenian forces in fighting over the breakaway Karabakh region. Even as Armenia hosted a Russian military base, the Kremlin engaged in a delicate balancing act, seeking to maintain warm ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

While their political interests often clashed, economic ties grew, with Russia increasing its natural gas exports to Turkey via a Black Sea pipeline; by building Türkiye’s first nuclear power plant; and providing the NATO member with advanced air defense systems, much to Washington's dismay.

Ties with Turkey have become even more important to Putin after his 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe's biggest conflict since World War II.

The West responded with economic sanctions that blocked Russia from most Western markets, restricted its access to the international financial system, closed transport routes and halted exports of key technologies. Turkey, which did not adhere to sanctions, has become Russia's key gateway to global markets, strengthening Erdogan's hand in negotiations with Putin.

While Turkey supported Ukraine's territorial integrity and supplied weapons to kyiv, Erdogan echoed Putin in accusing the United States and NATO of fomenting the conflict. Putin praised Erdogan for offering to mediate to reach a settlement.

In March 2022, Turkey hosted peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul which quickly collapsed, with Putin and Erdogan blaming the West for their failure.

Later that year, Ankara joined forces with the United Nations to negotiate a deal opening the door to Ukrainian grain exports from its Black Sea ports, a deal that helped drive down global food prices before collapse the following year.

Turkey's balance in Ukraine is driven by its dependence on the vast Russian market, natural gas supplies and tourist flow.

Russia's focus on Ukraine has eroded its influence in regions where Turkey and other actors have attempted to take advantage of Moscow's waning influence.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan regained control of all of Karabakh in a one-day blitz while Russian regional peacekeeping forces remained behind. This damaged Russia's ties with Armenia, which increasingly turned toward the West.

Focused on Ukraine, Russia had few resources for Syria at a time when Hezbollah was also withdrawing its fighters amid the war with Israel and Iranian support for Assad was also weakening.

Russia tried to sponsor negotiations on the normalization of relations between Turkey and Syria, but Assad blocked this, refusing to compromise.

Assad's intransigence helped trigger the Turkish-backed opposition offensive in November. The Syrian army, underfunded and demoralized, quickly collapsed, allowing rebels to sweep across the country and capture Damascus.

Even as it offered asylum to Assad and his family, Russia has reached out to Syria's new leaders, seeking to ensure the safety of its troops still there and to extend leases on its naval and air bases.

At his annual news conference Thursday, Putin said Russia had offered Syria's new leaders the use of the bases for the delivery of humanitarian aid and suggested Moscow could offer other incentives.

Although Assad's fall was a major blow to Russia, some believe Moscow could adapt to a rapidly changing environment to retain at least some influence.

Syrian opposition forces understand that the country's future is uncertain, Nikolay Kozhanov, consulting researcher for the Russia and Eurasia program at Chathan Houses, said in a commentary. They want Russia, if not as a friend, then at least as a neutral party.

He noted that Moscow's main goal will be to maintain at least a minimal level of influence through a military presence, for example in its existing bases, or through contacts with other regional players, such as Turkey.

Cagaptay observed that although Turkey wants to see an end to Russia's military presence in Syria, Ankara's position will depend on how relations with Washington evolve.

If we see a reset in US-Turkey relations, where Turkey thinks it can comfortably lean on the US against Russia, I can imagine Erdogan taking a more vocal tone towards Putin, he said.

But if the United States maintains its alliance with the Kurds and opposes Turkey's efforts to push back Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, Ankara may decide it must continue to play on all fronts, as she has for about a decade now, Cagaptay said. .

Putin stressed that Russia understood Turkey's motivations for securing its borders, but he also warned that the Kurds could offer strong resistance if attacked.

Emre Ersen, a Russia expert at Istanbul's Marmara University, also noted that although Assad's fall would diminish Moscow's influence, relations between Turkey and Russia would not be devastated by events in Syria.

Obviously, they still need to reach out to each other regarding the crisis in Ukraine, but also because they have very important economic relations, Ersen said, adding that Erdogan could be expected to ask for more concessions to Russia on energy and trade issues.

Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, contributed.