This Pacific country was hit by a massive earthquake. Does climate change increase seismic activity?

A recent study joins a growing body of evidence that climate affects seismic activity.

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Three days ago, a violent 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of the most populous island of Vanuatu in the Pacific Ocean.

Officials warned that the damage was concentrated in the central area of ​​the capital, Port Vila, and the official figure of 10 dead and more than 200 injured was likely to rise.

Vanuatu lies on the Pacific Ring of Fire, a belt of tectonic plates and volcanoes, and is hit by earthquakes on a regular basis, although none in living memory on the scale of Tuesday's disaster.

New research suggests that climate change could change earthquake patterns.

Was the Vanuatu earthquake caused by climate change?

Vanuatu is a sprawling archipelago covering a vast area of ​​the South Pacific Ocean and located between Australia and Fiji.

There are more than 80 coral and volcanic islands in which 330 thousand people live.

The country is also among the world's most vulnerable to climate change. Earlier this month, Vanuatu led a group of small island states in a landmark case on the subject at the UN Supreme Court.

Vanuatu's location makes it particularly vulnerable to earthquakes, but seismic instability may now be exacerbated by climate change.

“Climate change represents an existential threat that transcends borders, affecting all countries regardless of political ideology or geographic location,” Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s special envoy for climate change and environment, said in a statement.

“No country can keep its head in the sand any longer.”

Climate change could increase the frequency of earthquakes

Recent research by Colorado State University found that climate change could lead to more earthquakes.

It supports previous studies that provide evidence of the influence of climate on seismic activity.

The new findings, published in the journal Geology, analyzed the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of southern Colorado, a range with an active fault running along its western edge.

The teams found that the crack remained in place due to the weight of glaciers during the last ice age. However, as the ice melted, movement along the fault increased.

Rates of sliding – when fractures occur in the Earth's crust – have been five times faster since the last ice age than when the range was covered by glaciers.

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This suggests that seismic activity along the fault could become more frequent as the glaciers retreat.

“Climate change is occurring at a much faster rate than we see in the geological record,” first author Sissy Hurtado, who led the study as her master’s thesis, said in a statement.

“We see this in rapid mountain glacial retreats in Alaska, the Himalayas and the Alps. In many of these regions, there are also active tectonics.”

Their findings show that “as climate change alters ice and water loads, tectonically active regions may experience more fault movements and earthquakes more frequently due to rapidly changing stress conditions,” she added.

Understanding the impact of climate on earthquakes can help assess risks

The researchers' work joins a growing body of evidence that climate affects seismic activity.

“We've been able to model these processes for a while, but it's hard to find examples in nature,” said Sean Galen, associate professor of geosciences and senior author of the study.

“This is compelling evidence. It suggests that the atmosphere and solid Earth have close connections that we can measure in the field.”

He added that the results provide important information about the causes of earthquakes, which could be vital for risk assessments.

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