Politics
Labor election collapse is historic
Sir Keir StarmerThe party now averages just 26.6%, despite winning one of the largest majorities on record five months ago.
Analysis of nearly 1,000 surveys over 75 years Work are now 1% behind their previous year-end low in 2016, when Jeremy CorbynHis tenure was marked by feuds over anti-Semitism and leadership challenges.
The only other years to rival their current level were 1981, when the new Liberal-SDP Alliance shook up politics, and after a decade in power in 2009, when the party was reeling from recession and expenses scandal .
Labor still leads the polls, but is now only 0.5% ahead. Conservatives – well behind their 19% advance in January.
Kemi BadenochThe party has been virtually at a standstill for some time. It now stands at 26.1%, barely 2% above Liz Truss resigned.
Reform United Kingdom is several points behind 21%, with the Liberal Democrats on 11.8% and the Green vegetables on 7.7%.
Sky News analysis Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips averages calculated using the first and last 10 polls of each year (or the first and last five before 1997, when polls were less frequent).
The Labor Party's current position is a far cry from the 44% market share it enjoyed in January.
Its fall of 17.6% since then is the biggest fall in support over a calendar year ever recorded in UK-wide polls.
Only twice did a larger drop occur more suddenly.
The first was Nigel FarageThe start-up Brexit Party of 2019, which rose to first place in the European Parliament elections after weeks of deadlock in the House of Commons over negotiations.
In six months, his support was largely absorbed by Boris JohnsonThe Conservatives.
The Liberal Democrats' collapse in 2010 was even more serious: their wave of “cleggmania” during the May election campaign evaporated within weeks of becoming the junior partner in the unpopular coalition government.
But history suggests that all is not yet lost for Labor.
When they ended the year below 30% in 2009 and 2016, they rebounded by more than 10% the following year.
And Margaret Thatcher She recovered from a similar 27% in 1981 to win a majority of 144 seats – although she was buoyed by the Falklands War.
The biggest winner of the year by far is Reform UK.
Our analysis shows that this doubling constitutes the fourth largest increase observed in a peacetime calendar year.
But four years before the general elections, the challenge remains on this momentum.
No third party, which has experienced such growth since the war, has maintained its support beyond two years.
On the final Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips of 2024, Trevor will be joined by Leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell and Shadow Housing Secretary Kevin Hollinrake.
Watch it live on Sky News from 8.30am and follow it live on the Political center.
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