Manila Trench segment could trigger 8.4 magnitude earthquake – PHIVOLCS

A recent series of offshore earthquakes off the coast of Ilocos Sur have been traced to the Manila Trench, raising concerns about the possibility of an earthquake of significant magnitude, according to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).

The quakes, which occurred near the town of Santa Catalina, raised the possibility of a worst-case scenario: an 8.4-magnitude earthquake caused by the movement of this part of the Manila Trench.

In a tsunami simulation, PHIVOLCS divided the Manila Trench into four parts to better assess the risks. According to the simulation, such an earthquake could generate a tsunami with waves ranging in height from three to 15 metres.

“Once the tsunami occurs, the first wave will reach the coast of the provinces of Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, and Cagayan within two (2) to 15 minutes. At the same time, the wave height may reach three to 15 meters.

(Once a tsunami is produced, the first wave can reach the beaches of Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, and Cagayan within 2 to 15 minutes. Meanwhile, the wave height can reach 3 to 15 meters.)

According to PHIVOLCS calculations, the tsunami could reach Palaweg, Zambales in less than two minutes. The highest waves, up to 14.7 meters high, can reach Vigan, Ilocos Sur.

Since 4:02 a.m. on December 17, PHIVOLCS has recorded 49 offshore earthquakes west-northwest of Santa Catalina. The magnitude of these earthquakes ranged between 1.8 and 5.0.

The earthquakes are attributed to movements along the Manila Trench, an oceanic trench located west of the Philippines that reaches depths of up to 5,400 metres.

Despite these results, PHIVOLCS emphasized that earthquakes and tsunamis cannot be accurately predicted. The agency urged the public to remain vigilant and watch for signs of a potential tsunami, such as:

Strong earthquake, sudden changes in sea level, unusual sounds coming from the sea.

– DVM, GMA Integrated News

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