Ethiopia earthquakes – an expert alleviates concerns about the Renaissance Dam and Sudan

Amid a wave of earthquakes and aftershocks that have rocked the Afar, Oromia and Amhara regions of Ethiopia since December 22, 2023, raising fears of a volcanic eruption and prompting the rapid evacuation of more than 80,000 people, Sudanese geologists played down fears that the earthquakes could affect the Renaissance Dam. Greater Ethiopian (GERD), indicating that the current activity is far from the dam that was designed to take seismic events into account.

The GFZ Helmholtz Center for Geosciences in Germany confirmed that the most recently reported earthquake, which had a magnitude of 8.1, occurred at 08:25:54 (UTC) today, and was centered east of the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.

Today's earthquake comes on the heels of a 5.8 magnitude earthquake on Saturday, and a 5.5 magnitude earthquake on Friday – previously confirmed by GFZ and the USGS, and announced by the Emergency Response Coordination Center (ERCC) of European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations – which has been confirmed Previously, it was accompanied by more than 30 aftershocks and tremors during the past week. While detailed information is not available about the extent of human and material losses, the Ethiopian authorities are evacuating more than 80,000 people from the area, for fear of a volcanic eruption after smoke rose from the vents of the Dauphin Shield Volcano, which rises 450 meters above sea level. A submerged plain north of the Main Ethiopian Rift.

The Ethiopian Red Cross Society conducted a rapid assessment in the affected areas. It is estimated that about 81,750 people have been affected. There are major concerns about emergency shelter, food aid and clean water.

ERCC – Emergency Response Coordination Center map of earthquake activity in Ethiopia on 01-06-2025 (Map: European Union)

Distant hum

The current seismic activity has once again raised concerns in Sudan, especially regarding the safety of the Renaissance Dam, and the dangerous repercussions that could occur in Sudan and Egypt, but Sudanese geologists are downplaying any current danger, noting that even the closest scientists were to know that the last swarm of earthquakes was just a distance away. More than 100 kilometers from the Renaissance Dam.

Engineer Abdul Karim Al-Amin, in an interview with Dabanga – Radio TV Online, Sudanese Survey and Earth Sciences, confirms that the seismically active area is far from the Renaissance Dam, which is designed to withstand earthquakes even when it is filled to its maximum capacity.

One concern is that the significant drop in water level in the reservoir lake recently observed may be the result of a leak at the bottom of the lake, which could affect the structure of the reservoir, especially in light of increased seismic activity, but this is unlikely.

He says: “The important thing is that the area in which the Renaissance Dam will be built is far from the earthquake zone in eastern Ethiopia, and the epicenter of the recent earthquakes is located about 500 kilometers from the Renaissance Dam.”

Al-Amin points out that “dams are designed with maximum capacity to withstand earthquakes, and through monitoring around the world, we can see that in some exceptional cases, they generally do not collapse as a result of earthquakes.” He added that the decisive factor is the area in which the dams will be constructed, as studies are conducted before building the dam on the geological condition of the site. In the case of the Renaissance Dam, Ethiopia conducted two studies. He says that Sudan and Egypt were informed of the content of the second study, while Addis Ababa refrained from revealing the content of the first study to the two countries.

“The Renaissance Dam represents a security issue more than an engineering or technical issue…”

In an interview with Dabanga – Radio TV Online, Al-Amin explains that the Renaissance Dam certainly affects the entire environment in its area and downstream. However, “the Renaissance Dam represents more of a security issue than an engineering or technical issue.”

Worst case scenario

While Al-Amin stressed that any collapse of the Renaissance Dam due to seismic activity is highly unlikely, in the worst hypothetical scenarios, even a partial failure of the Renaissance Dam will have a massive impact on Sudan and Egypt. “The Sudanese lands surrounding the Nile River are characterized by low plains, which means that water will submerge large areas along the Blue Nile Basin and the Nile River, and all facilities built on its banks, including three of the main dams in Sudan (Al-Masabah, Sennar, and Merowe), will It is also affected by the reverse flow of water in the White Nile, causing flooding of large areas extending from the confluence of the two Nile at Khartoum to the dam area in the states of Upper Nile and Jonglei in South Sudan.

Al-Amin concludes that a number of academics and the Ministry of Irrigation pushed for a new investigation into this issue, calling on all parties interested in water resources to form a unit of scientists and experts to address all issues related to the Renaissance Dam and its environmental impacts. In the areas of the Nile Basin and its tributaries in a scientific manner.

He says: “This should include all water resources in Sudan: to prepare a comprehensive vision away from the political agenda.”

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