China seeks closer ties with South Korea, but challenges remain

President Yoon Suk Yeol extends his hand to Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting in Bali, Indonesia, November 15, 2022. Yonhap

Seoul's lack of leadership risks derailing relations with Beijing

By Kwak Yeon-soo

China is showing signs of a renewed desire to strengthen ties with South Korea. At the same time, North Korea is placing more emphasis on its relations with Russia. The world's second-largest economy is also bracing for an uncertain future with Donald Trump's return to the White House, according to foreign relations experts and academics.

However, the current lack of leadership in South Korea risks being a major setback in improving relations between the two countries, they said.

North Korea's relations have cooled with China, its largest trading partner and main benefactor. This stands in stark contrast to Pyongyang's growing military cooperation with Moscow.

Trade between North Korea and China has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels and the new bridge over the Yalu River connecting the two countries remains closed to this day, according to Cha Du-hyeogn, a senior researcher at the Asan Institute of Political Studies.

A recent sign of strained relations between Pyongyang and Beijing is the downplaying of Chinese President Xi Jinping's New Year greetings to Kim Jong-un, while treating Russian President Vladimir Putin's greetings as major news.

In recent months, China has sought to improve relations with its neighbors, notably South Korea and Japan. In November, Beijing surprisingly announced that it would remove visa requirements for South Korean visitors, in a bid to improve trade between the two countries.

At a meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru, in November, Xi told U.S. President Joe Biden that China would not allow “conflict and unrest” to occur in the Korean peninsula and that it would not “stand idly by”. at a time when its strategic security and fundamental interests will be threatened.

“It was the first time Xi publicly declared China's willingness to intervene in issues related to the Korean Peninsula. “Although North Korea has designated the South as its main enemy, China is focused on improving, not just managing, relations with Seoul,” said Kim Heung-kyu, professor of political science and of Diplomacy and Director of the Institute of US-China Policy at Ajou University. .

“They believe that the alliance between South Korea and the United States may weaken under the next Trump administration and that the strategic balance on the Korean Peninsula will collapse. Under such circumstances, China's focus is on economic incentives and its continued global influence. It is therefore important to work with neighboring countries for stability.

Acting President Choi Sang-mok, center, poses with China's new Ambassador to Korea Dai Bing, left, and Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul during a credentials reception ceremony from the envoy at the Seoul government complex on Tuesday. Yonhap

China defied some predictions by quickly appointing its new ambassador to Korea, Dai Bing, who took office on December 27.

Many believed that China might delay the appointment of its envoy after the process of appointing former presidential chief of staff Kim Dae-ki as South Korea's new ambassador to China was suspended due to the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Dai presented the letter of credence to Acting President Choi Sang-mok on Tuesday and reflected on Korea's resilience amid political uncertainty following the impeachment.

“China and the Republic of Korea are friendly neighbors and important partners. And we are committed to advancing our strategic cooperative partnership. I have great confidence in the wisdom and ability of the people of the Republic of Korea to meet current challenges, and I sincerely wish the stability, development and prosperity of the Republic of Korea and its people,” wrote Dai on X. The Republic of Korea refers to the acronym South. Official name of Korea, the Republic of Korea.

Kang Jun-young, a professor of Chinese studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said the political crisis in South Korea and the Trump administration's policies toward China will be key factors in the Seoul-Beijing relations.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping stroll during the latter's visit to Pyongyang in this June 2019 photo provided by the official North Korean news agency. Yonhap

“Reciprocity is an important aspect of diplomacy. I think Chinese officials are cautious when discussing these issues with Korean Ambassador to China Chung Jae-ho, who is a confidant of Yoon. This type of imbalance resulting from South Korea's lack of leadership will continue. We must resolve the leadership crisis to normalize relations with China and ensure Xi attends the APEC summit in November,” Kang said.

South Korea will host the next Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, later this year.

He predicted that Trump's pressure on China would persist over the next four years, forcing China to seek closer alignment with South Korea. Because of the alliance between South Korea and the United States, some argue that opportunities for cooperation between South Korea and China will be limited regardless of whether a liberal or conservative wins the next presidency.

“We have no reason to neglect China's action. However, South Korea's efforts to align with the Trump administration could derail relations between Seoul and Beijing. It is important to maintain a strategic cooperative partnership with China as well as reaffirm the alliance with the United States,” Kang said.