Lori Dengler | 2024 US Earthquake Report – Times Standard

The good news for US earthquakes in 2024 – no injuries and little damage. At the other end of the scale, induced seismic activity remains high, and our response to tsunami warnings leaves much room for improvement.

Earthquakes occurred in all the usual places in 2024. It's not at all surprising that Alaska leads the pack with the largest earthquakes. At least 2,237 earthquakes of magnitude 3 or greater were counted in Alaska and the Aleutian Island region, similar to last year but far fewer than the more than 5,200 earthquakes in 2018. Alaska has one of the longest subduction zones in the world and will always lead the United States in seismicity. number.

Alaska did not win the largest earthquake in the United States this year. Only five earthquakes in Alaska reached the magnitude 6 category last year and the largest were two M6.3 earthquakes on December 8. This was the lowest total since 2004 when only two M6 earthquakes occurred. The largest earthquake in the United States was happening in our backyard, the M7.0 Mendocino Fault earthquake that occurred on December 5th.

A magnitude 7 earthquake is quite capable of causing significant damage depending on its location, the population exposed to it, and the nature of construction in the area. We've been lucky in all of these categories. The earthquake occurred about 40 miles offshore, the strongest tremors were in less populated areas, and our buildings were mostly wood-framed and resistant to side-by-side shaking.

This is in sharp contrast to the similar earthquake that occurred last week in Tibet. A 7.1-magnitude earthquake occurred north of the Nepal border on January 6. The death toll currently stands at 126 people, in addition to 350 injured, and an unknown number of people are still missing. Ground motion estimates show similar ground accelerations for both earthquakes. Tibet is a more densely populated area with nearly three times as many people exposed to strong tremors, but the main difference in impacts was construction. Many houses in Tibet are built of stone without any reinforcement to withstand earthquakes. No casualties were reported in our earthquake and only a few structures were compromised.

The Mendocino Fault earthquake is also largely responsible for a sharp jump in California earthquakes through 2023. Earthquakes of magnitude 366 and larger were reported in California last year, about 150 more than last year. The M7 North Coast aftershock sequence could explain more than 100% of this excess. The rest is due to high seismic activity in Southern California.

Our M7 has produced a rich series of aftershocks, slightly more powerful than those produced by past large earthquakes on the Mendocino fault. The 1994 M7.1 earthquake was about 30 miles west of the 2024 rupture. Only 45 aftershocks of magnitude 3 or greater amplitude were produced in the two months after the quake, about a third of what the December 5 quake produced in just one month. Why the difference? There are no clear answers, but the proximity of the recent earthquake to the Triple Junction and earthquakes in 2021 and 2022 may have “primed the pump” so to speak. The 2024 earthquake produced a much greater spike in events in the triple junction area than in 1994.

It's only been a month since the aftershocks phase, and it's not over yet. So far, the sequence has been “well-behaved” in the sense that the daily count and peak size have diminished in a predictable manner. We are now in a relatively stable period, with two or three aftershocks detected most days, sometimes skipping a day, sometimes more. This should continue for at least the next few months. But don't rule out a few 4s with the power of other 5s. The USGS estimates a 10% chance of another M5 next month and a probability of more than 40% next year. Naturally, we have many other errors that are perfectly capable of starting a new sequence.

December 5 may have been the largest earthquake the United States has seen in 2024, but it was by no means the most widely felt. More than 16,000 people submitted reports to the USGS titled “Did You Feel It?” location, which places it only ninth on the list of 2024 earthquake responses. The surprise winner? The April 5 earthquake in Tewksbury, New Jersey, had a magnitude of 4.8! To be fair, most of these responses were just “mild” or “moderate” shaking, compared to many of the “strong” reports of our earthquake, but there's no denying that the impact of the modest New Jersey quake was much greater.

With 184,827 reports, the New Jersey earthquake is the all-time winner of the “Did you feel it?” competition. Reports since the site was activated in the 2000s. There have been many larger, more damaging earthquakes in this time period, but no other earthquake has had anywhere near the response. In second place, with a magnitude of just over 131,000, is another earthquake on the East Coast, the M5.8 earthquake in August 2011 near Washington, D.C. Only 40,000 responses were filed after the previous M7.0 California earthquake (Ridgecrest in 2019) .

Maybe Californians are more indifferent about feeling earthquakes and less likely to respond to them? Sue Hogue of the USGS took a look at “Did You Feel It?” responses in a systematic manner and finds no evidence that we are less likely to fill out concrete reports. When adjusting for population density, we are more likely to report moderate shaking compared to people in the east. There is a real, physical difference in response differential.

The December 5 earthquake was felt as far away as Boise, Idaho, 520 miles from the epicenter. The 2019 Northridge earthquake was felt as far away as West Texas, about 920 miles away. The New Jersey earthquake produced reliable reports from New Brunswick to Minneapolis and Louisiana. The people who felt it in New Orleans were 1,145 miles away from the epicenter.

How would an earthquake less than 1,000 times the magnitude of the M7 earthquake in California be felt over such a large area? It's all about geology. The western third of the United States is more tectonically active than the Midwest or East. Tectonics means building mountains, active faults, hot springs, and, in a few areas, volcanoes. These are all manifestations of higher heat flow and warmer crust, which means less efficient transmission of seismic waves. The December 1811 New Madrid earthquake in southern Missouri was strong enough to ring church bells in Washington, D.C., and was felt by many in Maine. It was probably smaller than the 1906 M7.9 San Francisco earthquake, which was felt by an area less than half its size.

Not all earthquakes that occurred in the United States in 2024 were tectonic in origin. Earthquakes caused by hydrocarbon production and waste disposal are still prevalent in many areas of the Midwest, most frequently in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and southern Colorado. Texas continues to lead the pack with roughly the same number of M4s in 2024 as in 2023. Two earthquakes in Texas reached the M5 range, causing minor damage and imposing limits on the volume and rate of disposal of waste fluids in deep wells. After years of declining induced seismic activity, Oklahoma saw a nearly two-fold increase in the number of M3 and larger earthquakes in 2024 compared to the previous year and produced the first M5 earthquake since 2016.

Perhaps the biggest lesson the United States can learn from the earthquakes of 2024 is that it should not be shaky at all. Large earthquakes offshore or near the coast have the potential to produce devastating tsunamis. It's not just a problem in the Pacific, countries and territories bordering the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean, or the Caribbean are all vulnerable to a similar threat. The December 5th earthquake demonstrates how poorly understood this threat is and requires that we do everything we can to communicate the risks. Next time may not be so benign.

Lori Dengler is professor emeritus of geology at Cal Poly Humboldt and an expert in tsunami and earthquake hazards. Questions or comments about this column, or want a free copy of the “Living on Shaky Ground” preparedness magazine? Leave a message at 707-826-6019 or email [email protected].

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