Ricardo Martínez Isidoro | Trump, Putin, Xi Jinping

At the dawn of the appointment of the new president of the United States, we can admit that the world is betting its future on the decisions that these three characters could take; However, it is obvious that a European leader is missing to complete the quartet of leaders representing the four territories which today embody the two poles of power on the world geopolitical scene. It is also true that the designation of this leader, chosen by the Europeans, is uncertain, an aspect which gives an idea of ​​the representativeness of Europe in the current international concert which opens in 2025.

The United States and Europe since 1949, the date of the creation of the Atlantic Alliance, have been linked, developing successive strategies to finally overthrow the communist regime which dominated and threatened the continent; the extraordinary urgency of China, the financial laziness of European countries with regard to their defense budgets within NATO and the bellicose attitude of the Empire in the neighboring sea, as well as the construction of armed forces powerful forces that compromise peace in the South China Sea, have probably prompted the future new American president to choose the Indo-Pacific region as a priority scenario for his security policy, in which Taiwan is also a hot spot; The tariff war will complete the dispute.

Trump will therefore have to resolve the mess that binds him to the security of Europe, in which Putin's Russia is the main problem because of its aggression against Ukraine, and in which the United States is the main strategic supporter and financial of his resistance. ; The Russian president has been carrying out his special operation for almost three years without costly ground advances in eastern Ukraine showing the slightest sign of success, while his war economy suffers and his troops have to resort to foreign loans. foreign aid, as bizarre as the introduction of North Korean troops into the conflict, to defend and recover its own territory in Kursk, which, if known, would be unacceptable to the Russian population, while China Xi Jinping is becoming more and more strong, and was once its competitor in Asia.

Trump is not going to abandon Europe, he would lose his ancestral influence in favor of a Russia that is still potentially large and nuclear, but he is going to offload his security obligations in Europe onto the Europeans, by increasing their financial burdens, for their own defense, and by increasing the commitment threshold from the already insufficient 2% of GDP, to cover the necessary support against the East, today practically in command of the United States, by promoting a European strategic operational organization in accordance with its responsibilities real, an aspect that a Defense has not been able to erect to date.

Putin has failed to break the nuclear deterrent maintained by the two most important powers in possession of this type of weapon, despite his threats since the dawn of the famous special operation, and a little ridiculous now, in name, and the active management of their agents of influence; It lost energy markets with Europe, its main economic tool, and became dependent on those of the South, India and China, in the latter case to a large extent.

Its failure to support the regime of Bashar al Assad and its reduced intervention in the eternal simmering war between Israel and Iran, in which the Jews have inflicted a severe blow on the allies of the Persians and indirectly on Alawite Syria, leave Russia of Putin in a situation of discredit as an ally, even if he points to another theater, that of Libya and perhaps Algeria, and its determined penetration, to prosper, in the Sahel and Mediterranean, faced with the passivity of France, the former dominator of this space.

It is very possible that Trump will promote peace in Ukraine, at least he categorically promised this during his election campaign, and the trick he is playing will be to gradually cut off aid to Zelensky, without which the continuation of resistance is meager, a separation of the forces present, necessary for a sufficient distance of non-aggression, the pseudo neutrality of Ukraine, more or less prolonged over time, and a certain territorial concession from Russia in the Donbass, could be the first ingredients of administration of the new president of the United States, leaving the final decision to subsequent generations.

Xi Jinping prefers peace, even if the war in Ukraine subdues Russia and he gets cheap energy, but he also knows that his prosperity is not a conflict, his market is also Europe and the continent spends now for defense, and may have to spend a lot MS.

In this context, it is possible to think that there will be a European reaction, at least belated, given that France and Germany are in their internal labyrinths and that the other partners have several fundamental disagreements.

• Ricardo Martinez Isidoro He is a major general. and writer