80% chance of a major earthquake in the Nankai Basin within 30 years

The probability of a magnitude 8 or -9 earthquake occurring in the Nankai Basin within the next 30 years has risen to “about 80 percent,” according to the government's Earthquake Research Commission.

It had previously estimated that there was a “70 to 80 percent” chance of a massive earthquake occurring off Japan's densely populated Pacific coast during this period.

The Nankai Basin extends from Shizuoka Prefecture to the coast of Kyushu.

Officials said the probability of earthquakes is calculated based on the length of time between past earthquakes and the number of years since the last quake.

This means that the probability increases slightly each year if an expected huge earthquake does not occur in the previous year.

Officials said the recalculation on January 15 was not due to abnormal phenomena in the area of ​​the potential center of the Nankai Basin, but simply due to the automatic annual update.

“We have concluded that there is no data that increases the probability of a large earthquake occurring compared to normal times,” committee head Naoshi Hirata said, referring to the earthquake whose epicenter was in the Hyuganada Sea off the coast of Miyazaki Prefecture in the Kyushu region of Japan. January 13.

According to the committee, the probability of a huge earthquake in the Nankai area is increasing by less than one percent every year.

The probability of this happening, calculated under multiple scenarios, ranged between 75 to 82 percent as of January 1 of this year. It was rounded as usual and adjusted to about 80 percent this time.

In 2018, the probability increased to “70 to 80 percent” compared to the previous “about 70 percent.”

The committee also discussed the situation of seismic activity following the 7.6 magnitude earthquake that struck the Noto Peninsula on January 1, 2024.

She said forecasts for future activity were difficult to determine, as a series of magnitude 6 earthquakes following the 7.6 magnitude quake had “never been observed before in Japan.”

(This article was written by Takahiro Takenouchi and Fumi Yada.)

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