Armenia faces challenges in 2025

Another challenge for Armenia is the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war. Whatever the outcome, it will inevitably influence Armenia. John Lough of the British political institute Chatham House identifies 4 possible scenarios for the outcome of the war: 1. A long war, a conflict of attrition which tests the limits of each side, 2. A frozen conflict, an armistice which would stabilize the front line where it is. 3. Victory for Ukraine A change in Western support policy that allows Ukraine to force Russia back to at least the demarcation line of February 23, 2022. 4. Defeat for Ukraine Acceptance by Ukraine Ukraine Russian conditions of capitulation (change of government, demilitarization, neutrality) and territorial losses.
Armenia has distanced itself from Russia over the Ukraine issue, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan saying Armenia is not an ally of Russia in the conflict. This divergence with Moscow reflects Armenia's evolving foreign policy, which seeks to balance traditional alliances with the need to reduce dependence on Russia.

Economically, Armenia benefited from the conflict, as trade between Armenia and Russia increased significantly. However, despite the immediate economic gains, increasingly continued cooperation with Russia in this area could lead to increased pressure from the West to adhere to sanctions limiting future growth. Armenia has already taken some steps to reduce the possibilities of Russia circumventing sanctions through Armenia. Thus, the prolongation of the war could lead to increased pressure on economic ties between Armenia and Russia, which are not in compliance with Western sanctions.

As for the geopolitical impact on Armenia, while Russia remains deeply engaged in the conflict in Ukraine, its ability to engage in regional issues in the South Caucasus, including those related to Armenia's security , has decreased considerably. This means that Armenia will likely face a reduced Russian presence and involvement in the South Caucasus, which, in turn, will push it to further diversify its external relations, favoring closer ties with countries such as the United States, the European Union and other powers like Iran. , India and China, in order to reduce its dependence on Russia. The Armenian government will also continue to pursue the normalization of relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan to achieve this goal.

However, Russia's victory could lead to deeper engagement in the region and Armenia. It is therefore crucial for Armenia to maintain balanced relations with all important players in the region, regardless of the outcome of the war.

Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression

A constant and crucial challenge for Armenia is the danger of Azerbaijani and Turkish attacks on Armenia. Since the 44-day war of 2020, Azerbaijani rhetoric has become more aggressive, with President Ilham Aliyev constantly making statements to justify further attacks on Armenia. A recent remark was made in an interview with Azerbaijani television channels on the night of January 7, when Aliyev said: Armenia is indeed a source of threat to the region. The independent Armenian state is essentially a fascist state. For almost 30 years, this country was governed by bearers of fascist ideology, who shaped the state in their image. We must therefore eradicate fascism. He added: “It will be eradicated either by the Armenian leaders or by us. There is no other way.

Such statements are for Aliyev only a means of legitimizing future attacks against Armenia, the danger of which unfortunately remains very high. Meanwhile, Turkey is actively promoting the Zangezur Corridor idea. As Iran's influence wanes in the region, Turkey has managed to secure negotiations with Iran on this issue, signaling potential concessions. As Turkey becomes increasingly assertive, as noted above, Iran may be forced to soften its stance on the Zanguezur issue, giving way to a serious threat to the security of the Republic of Armenia.