California Nation: Majority Wants the State to Secede from the United States

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This story is part of California Voices, a commentary forum aimed at broadening our understanding of the state and shining a light on Californians directly affected by politics or the lack thereof. Learn more here.

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With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, he resumes his long-standing feud with California and its political figures, first and foremost Governor Gavin Newsom.

Trump refers to Newsom as Newscum in his social media posts, and Newsom has called a special session of the California legislature to fund measures to counter Trump's policy executive orders.

The transcontinental shootings raise an old question: Could California sever its ties with the United States and become an independent country again?

That's what the Independent California Institute, based in San Diego County, thinks. He cites California's world-class economy and its status as an influential and well-known player on the global stage, particularly in humanity's collective fight against climate change.

The institute released a new poll finding that more than 60 percent of Californians agree they would be better off in California if it peacefully seceded from the United States at some point in the next 10 years.

According to the organization, strong majorities want California to form a commission dedicated to secession; use its border crossings to check incoming automobiles for drugs, guns and other contraband; seeking ownership of federally owned land and using harsh tactics in Congress, such as withholding votes on the federal budget to push for independence.

Of course, none of this is likely to happen, but on paper, an independent California might be feasible.

Canada, which also shares a long border with the other 47 contiguous U.S. states, is comparable in many ways to an independent California.

WeeklyMatters WeeklyMatters Stay up to date on California news with a summary of our reporting and commentary. Stay up to date on California news with a summary of our reporting and commentary.

California's population of just under 40 million is almost identical in size to Canada's, but there is a big difference in economic output. Canada's economy, estimated at $2.3 trillion, ranks ninth in the world, while California's, at $3.9 trillion, ranks fifth or sixth.

Canada's national budget of C$534.6 billion (US$372 billion) is not much more than Newsom's proposed state budget of $322 billion. However, about $100 billion of Californias comes from non-tax sources, primarily the federal government.

Much of Canada's budget resembles California's, namely spending on education, health care, welfare and housing. A major difference is that Canada also spends about $40 billion on military defense, less than 5% of the $825 billion spent by the United States on defense.

This raises an interesting question about how an independent California would defend itself. Would it, like Canada, depend on its much more powerful neighbor to provide military protection when needed, or would it build its own large army? This is one of many aspects of governance that a California nation should address.

The U.S. government now collects more than $560 billion a year in taxes from Californians. So, without raising overall taxes, the new nation would have that money to fund not only a military force, but also other programs now covered in whole or in part by the federal government, such as health care and benefits social security.

The federal government now covers about 50 percent of Californians' medical costs, paying about $200 billion a year through Medicare, Medi-Cal, Obamacare, and federal military and retiree coverage.

The Social Security system pays about $10 billion in benefits each year to more than 1 million California beneficiaries.

The Independent California Institute believes that an independent California would continue its center-left politics, and Canada could also be a model in this regard. However, the Canadian economy has been in crisis lately; its budget has a $40 billion deficit and its longtime prime minister, Justin Trudeau, is forced to resign.

Trump suggested that a struggling Canada should become a state. So the final question is: Would trading California for Canada be better for everyone?

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