A new approach to monitoring the earthquake in Antic Berkano, Japan

The aerial view of Ontake Volcano, Honshū Island, Japan. Credit: Dr. Kushon Yamauka.

For societies that live under a volcano, early warning systems are the lifeline – but lack of confidence in these warnings can have fatal consequences. To avoid wrong warnings, it is very important for scientists to search for more reliable ways to monitor volcanoes.

A new study published this week in Seismica by Oxford University researchers in a seismic signal known as the division of the wave was achieved to provide scientists and societies with an early early warning of the dangerous explosion.

Large movements of magma and rocks inside a volcano cause seismic waves, but these signals can be a challenge to connect them. The aim of this research was to search for a user -can not only predicts if there is an eruption that will happen, but also if the explosion is especially harmful.

Division

The division of the cutting wave is a phenomenon as seismic waves are transmitted at different speeds depending on its polarization. Rocks and fractures inside the rock can slow seismic waves, but have a greater delay effect on seismic waves that are transmitted through cracks and fractures. If the cracks are aligned in one direction, the quantity of dividing the cutting wave increases.

Migration and fluids move under a volcano that exerts pressure on the surrounding rocks, causing cracks in certain directions and closing them in others. Examination of changes in dividing the cutting wave through time can be really useful for scientists, as it tells them where these cracks and closure open.

Ontake Volcano is covered with snow. Credit: Dr. Shinisho Horikawa.

But the research team wanted to take this step forward-testing whether the bigger stress changed during the explosive explosion also caused a more important change in the amount of division of the shear.

Professor Mike Kendall (Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford) said: “Seismic contrast-or the effect of rock formation and internal fractures on the speed of shear waves that swing in the right corners of each other-is a well-documented phenomenon.”

“When we were reflected in how to increase growth contrast with pressure inside the volcano, we were excited to explore whether we can discover these changes, and if this is a distinctive signal that can be applied to early warning systems.”

Notes in Ontake Volcano

The research team put this theory on the test by examining seismic signals during the Ortaki Volcano eruption, on the island of Honcho, Japan. The 2007 eruption was small and had a much less impact on the surrounding community, while the 2014 eruption was larger, more explosive and more deadly.

They were excited to discover that during the smaller explosion, the amount of division of the wave remained stable all the time, but during the larger explosion, the amount of division doubled before Ontake exploded. The team believes that changing the greatest stress during the 2014 eruption increased the division of the monitored cutting wave, indicating a useful relationship between the amount of division and the size of the eruption.

Ontake volcano width at the distance. Credit: Dr. Shinisho Horikawa.

Professor Tushiko Terrakawa (University of Nagoya) pointed out that “the focal mechanisms of volcanic-toxical earthquakes have changed dramatically before and after the explosion for the year 2014. The data may be merged from the division of the cutting wave and the seizure of the earthquake deeper into the cases required to decline.”

Professor Martha Savage (Wellington University in Victoria) added, “Records about two revolutions on the UNTIC volcano in Japan have been able to show that this method could not only show changes before explosions, but can help predict the size of the explosion. This work was an example of how people from all over the world cooperated.

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Early valuable warning system

Since the change in the division of the wave is before the Ontake eruption begins, scientists who monitor the volcano will be able to use this parameter as an early and indicated vital system on the extent of the destruction of the eruption. This provides a new way to protect local communities from the devastating effects of the volcanic explosion.

“We expect to see these effects in other volcanoes around the world, not only in Antic Berkano,” said Dr. Tom Ketliti (Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford).

“With the changes in volcanic stress before the eruption, we expect that we will see changes in the division of the shear. This may be a valuable tool for early warning from volcanic eruptions, especially for local societies.”

This work is part of a vibrant research program in volcanoes and Earth's thermal energy in Oxford. The recently published work on the basis of “Zombie” Volcano Uortuncu showed unique visions of volcanoes, which complement the type of risk monitoring that takes place in Ontake Volcano.

More information: Michael Kendall et al, changes in seismic contrast in Ontake Volcano: the story of two revolutions, Seismica (2025). DOI: 10.26443/Seismica.v4i1.1101

Introduction from Oxford University

Quote: Urban download: A new approach to monitoring the earthquake in Antic Berkano, Japan (2025, May 1).

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