Mixed Prognosis-Bill Gates Says Covid-19 Pandemic Ends by End of 2021 | International

Millions will die before the covid-19 pandemic ends. It’s a clear message in an interview with Zanny Minton Beddoes from Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft and one of the world’s largest philanthropists through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. economistEditor in chief, early August. Most of these deaths were caused not by the disease itself, but by the additional burden on the already suffering health care system and economy, he said. He also lamented the politicalization of the virus response in the United States and the spread of conspiracy theories, some of which involved him, and both have slowed efforts to contain the spread of the disease. However, he offers reasons for hope over the medium term and predicts that by the end of 2021, a fairly effective vaccine will be mass-produced and a large enough share of the world’s population will be vaccinated to halt the epidemic. did.

Gates spent a lot of time thinking about viruses and vaccines late last year, long before the first coronavirus was discovered in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The Gates Foundation is the center of a global alliance that seeks to vaccinate everyone to eradicate polio, reduce malaria burden, and find vaccines against polio. It’s been a few years since he warned that the new illness that is causing the global pandemic is a problem, not when, and a “germ game” along the lines of the wargame that the world carries out by the military. Asked to hold. The Foundation has already pledged more than $350 million for covid-19 pandemic response, many focused on mitigating impacts in developing countries. But more is needed. “We all have to spend billions of dollars to get the vaccine out to save the trillions of economic harm,” he says.

Patch data makes it Hard to assess the true extent of damage In many poor countries. By August 17, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, a public health agency, recorded more than one million cases and more than 25,000 deaths from covid-19 in Africa. In India, about 52,000 people have been recorded dead from the disease. The true numbers in both places are probably much higher. However, the coronavirus is not the only deadly force active in the pandemic-struck developing world. The millions of deaths that Gates predicts are caused not only by direct covid-19, but also by the knock-on effect. Nearly 90% are indirect deaths, he says. Lockdowns reduce access to vaccinations and medications for other diseases. Deaths from malaria and HIV will increase. If agricultural productivity declines, hunger will spread and education will decline. When it comes to fighting poverty, the virus can be wiped out 10-year profit..

To mitigate that risk, Gates calls on rich countries to buy vaccines for the poor. This is not entirely altruistic. If some countries remain reservoirs for this disease, they will continue to reappear in others. Vaccine prices are high enough in rich countries, and if fixed costs such as clinical trials and factory construction are covered, marginal costs for supplying to poor countries are relatively low, totaling around 10 billion to 12 billion dollars Become. He sees a large portion of that money coming from the United States, which also gives vaccine research and development a “outstanding best grade”, accounting for 80% of the world’s total. He hopes to see the money pledged to buy vaccines for the poor world in Congress’s next supplementary spending bill.

Whether that happens depends on politics. Congressional negotiations on the next US stimulus package Stagnation for several weeks.. The country’s severe political polarization complicates its response to the virus, causing problems that other countries do not face. The simple act of wearing a mask is not a matter of seeking and following the advice of professionals, as in most other cases, but a political statement. Depressingly, Gates thinks that the November elections, even if they mean a change in direction at the top, cannot be reversed. If public trust is lost and policy shifts from the area of ​​cost-benefit analysis to partisanship, it is not easy to reverse. Under President Joe Biden, Gates believes refusing to wear a mask could be a way for Donald Trump’s supporters to signal their anger and resistance.

Lack of leadership in the United States has also hindered cross-border pandemics. The only superpower in the world has long led the world’s public health efforts. Without it, consensus is much harder to form. And the mood in many countries is one of the withdrawals from multilateralism and cooperation by international organizations. It’s hard to see the trend reverse, as illness is hitting government incomes everywhere. Generosity is lacking, however beneficial it may be to donors and recipients when budgets are under pressure.

The existence of a vaccine is not enough. People must be willing to accept it. And here too, Americans are late. A recent poll by Gallup found that one in three people, even for free, did not agree to receive an FDA-approved vaccine. But here the news is more favorable. According to the latest research, partial immunity posed by other coronaviruses in the circulation and vaccines already used in other diseases already provides some protection against covid-19, according to Gates. Say. It is also not as contagious as some other illnesses. The current best estimate is that 30-60% of the world’s population will need an effective vaccine to stop a pandemic. “Fortunately, this is not measles. We don’t need more than 90% of people to be vaccinated.”

When Gates resigned as CEO of Microsoft in 2000, the Gates Foundation launched GAVI, a global alliance to provide vaccines to poor countries. His involvement in polio and measles vaccines has made him an expert in ensuring equitable distribution, especially in poor countries. And this is where Gates’ outlook is most positive. He believes the covid-19 vaccine will be the fastest ever made. If it’s ready for distribution in the time he anticipates, it will be the fastest vaccine ever to go to market.

The world is on track to reach this goal. Over 150 vaccines have been developed around the world, 6 in the final large-scale clinical trial.. Gates has already donated hundreds of millions of dollars. He will donate more. However, funding from private foundations is limited. He thinks the government needs to take the lead. Because it is the medical infrastructure that needs to be used for distribution, for public support and trust. So far, they have pledged only about $10 billion in global efforts to manufacture and distribute vaccines. This is not enough..