An earthquake in Wales sends shock waves through Westminster

The most obvious conclusion to be drawn from the Caerphilly Sind by-election result is that the Labor government is in deep trouble. This may not come as a huge surprise, but until a few weeks ago, the party might have been hoping for a stronger performance than its 11 per cent vote share.

Even allowing for a great deal of tactical voting by those who normally vote Labour, once it became clear that only Plaid Cymru could prevent UK Reform from winning, it is a pathetic sight in an electorate that has been stuck with Labor consistently for over 100 years. In fact, there are no excuses for Sir Keir Starmer losing his seat in the Welsh Valleys, once the base of Keir Hardie, the party's first leader.

The reasons for the loss are clear. There are some special factors at play – as always in by-elections – apart from tactical voting. The Plaid Cymru candidate is an authentic and well-known voice in the area.

Labor in Wales also has to deal with the inevitable consequences of remaining in office too long. The party has governed the country, sometimes with little party support, since 1999 – a dominance unparalleled in British political history outside the long unionist hegemony in Northern Ireland. After nearly three decades of Labor rule – recently marred by scandals involving the short-lived First Minister, Vaughan Gething – Wales can be forgiven for wanting change.

Yet much of Labour's unpopularity in Wales stems from the same issues that leave voters elsewhere frustrated – the economy, public services, and immigration. There is nothing new there, and every country in the UK is still waiting for a definitive account of the government's aims to arrive.

The popularity of an administration depends not only on competent governance – and even then Labor has been a disappointment – ​​but also on successful communication. What the Starmer administration lacks above all is a sense of purpose: it needs to explain why difficult decisions need to be made, why they are unpredictable, and what the rewards might be for the government. Instead, voters witnessed a series of mistakes, miscalculations, U-turns, tax increases, and scandals, along with modest efforts to reform Social Security that could not pass through the House of Commons even with a 148-vote government majority.

At such a low point optimism is needed – but as Sir Keir and his colleagues look forward, there is precious little to look forward to. Soon, Labor will confirm its traditional tendency toward self-destruction by electing a deputy leader openly hostile to kicking the prime minister down.

If, as seems certain, Lucy Powell succeeds Angela Rayner, we may be sure that she will appoint herself a “shop manager” for members, trade unions and the parliamentary Labor Party, and will exacerbate the profoundly destabilizing dynamic between the government and its MPs. This will make the budget due in three weeks more difficult than it has already been promised. Whatever Chancellor Rachel Reeves chooses will be unpopular in the country, but she should signal that Labor cannot simply tax its way to economic growth – or to electoral recovery. Ms. Powell would disagree. There will be a problem.

The popularity of any administration depends not only on competent governance – and even here Labor has been a disappointment – but on successful communication (AP)

Sooner or later, the government will have to return to reforming the social security system and putting public finances on a demographically sustainable basis. And here there seems to be nothing but a dead end. Labor MPs had already objected to proposed welfare reforms earlier this year, and now party members have appointed Ms Powell as leader of internal opposition to any such moves in the coming months. In other words, the government is being dragged into another brutal battle with its representatives and members. The Work and Pensions Secretary, Pat Macfadyen, is one of Sir Keir's most competent ministers, and if anyone can find a way to solve this intractable problem it is him – but the scope of another disaster is all too clear.

Caerphilly will not be Labour's last, or worst, electoral humiliation. When it won the general election fourteen months ago, the party could confidently look forward to retaining power in Wales, regaining Scotland, and expanding its base in councils and local governments. Now, there is no such thing as a safe seat for Labour. It will suffer a series of crushing defeats in 2026, attacked by the hard-right populists of the UK Reform Party, with the Greens, Scottish and Welsh nationalists, Liberal Democrats and Corbynists attacking from the progressive end of the political spectrum. Even the conservatives are showing signs of life.

Under the current circumstances, Labour's best hope is that the next general election presents a stark choice between it, as the incumbent party, and the UK Reform Party running Britain, with the implication that a broad, tactical vote will secure Labor what now looks like an elusive second term in office. Caerphilly explains that when voters face such a clear choice – between a party they don't really want, and an alternative they greatly fear – it can persuade them to vote in a way they otherwise would not.

This situation may unfold in the coming years, but such an ugly negative strategy is no substitute for what Labor promised not so long ago – growth, delivery, stability, efficiency and change for the better.

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