61% of India is now at moderate to high earthquake risk – decode new earthquake map

Delhi: A new seismic map has revealed the vulnerability of the Himalayas in India to earthquakes, including Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

Almost the entire Himalayan arc of the country has now been placed in the newly created Zone VI – the highest category in terms of seismic hazard – in the map released last week under Seismic Design Code 2025 by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). Not only this, it also shows that 61% of the country is located in medium to high risk areas.

Since the map appeared, social media has seen a wave of posts about overpopulation and overdevelopment in the fragile hills, as well as calls to strengthen early warning systems and disaster management mechanisms. Here's what the new map changes about India's understanding of earthquake risk.

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What does zone six mean?

Zone VI is a newly introduced category in the seismic map, created specifically to identify areas at high seismic risk.

It is based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA), which is a modern scientific method that estimates the probability and severity of earthquakes that an area may be exposed to.

Previous seismic maps have divided the Himalayas into zones IV and V even though the entire belt lies on the same collision boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates, putting constant tectonic pressure under states like Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and parts of Uttar Pradesh.

Some parts of the central Himalayan region – especially between Uttarakhand and western Nepal – have not experienced a major earthquake in nearly 200 years, a long gap that indicates building pressure across this part of the arc.

Seismologist Vineet Gahalot, director of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, said the new division brings the long-awaited unification of the entire Himalayan arc. “The previous partitioning process did not fully take into account the behavior of these closed parts, which continue to build up stress.”

The previous map, last revised in 2016, had divided India into four seismic zones, namely II (low), III (moderate), IV (high) and V (very high). The new sixth region is the most dangerous category now. Apart from the Himalayan belt, it also includes the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Read also: Earthquake or illusion? Science frowns as India earthquake prophets stir up fuss with cat and cartoon theories

Dealing with increasing earthquake risks

The new map shows that 75 percent of India's population lives in seismically active areas.

Previously, about 59% of India's land area was classified as earthquake-prone, with approximately 11% in Zone V, 18% in Zone IV, 30% in Zone III, and the rest in Zone II. The new map classifies 61 percent of the country's land area as moderate to high-risk areas. Border cities located between two regions have been transferred to the most dangerous category.

For the first time, the BIS guidelines also address non-structural components of buildings, including barriers, overhead tanks, electrical lines and elevators, which often fall and cause injuries during earthquakes. The guidelines also state that heavy nonstructural elements exceeding 1 percent of the building's weight must be stabilized to prevent dangerous internal collapses.

The revised seismic map also brings in a concept known as the “exposure window,” which takes into account population density, infrastructure, and socioeconomic vulnerability through the Probabilistic Exposure and Multiple Hazards (PEMA) methodology.

By incorporating these factors, the exposure window ensures that seismic zoning reflects not only the expected ground motion but also the potential consequences for communities, particularly in densely populated urban areas where moderate tremors can cause significant disruption.

(Edited by Asavari Singh)

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