Before the next earthquake hits Western Australia, we need to fix the bricks

Twenty-five years ago, on February 28, our region was shaken to the core by the Nisqually Earthquake, a 6.8-magnitude midday disaster that upended life in the Puget Sound region. This remains the country’s costliest earthquake in the past 30 years. It was a merciful event in one sense: no one died as a result of injuries sustained during the tremors. However, economic losses are estimated at between $1 billion and $4 billion, forever symbolized by smashed cars, piles of bricks in Pioneer Square and years of repair work at the state Capitol in Olympia.

One of the clearest lessons from the Nisqually earthquake, and from earthquakes around the world, is that old brick, stone and mortar buildings are among the most vulnerable when the ground shakes. These so-called “unreinforced masonry” downtown buildings are common across the Northwest, and they are distinctive. But they can pose a serious danger to life and limb if they are not strengthened before a major earthquake. As a Washington state seismologist, I am fully aware that another earthquake like the Nisqually quake is inevitable in the coming decades, but I also know that modern engineering can repair these ancient structures to make them safer when the next inevitable quake occurs. We just have to find the will and the means to do it.

Five years ago, on the twentieth anniversary, I wrote an op-ed urging an accelerated pace of retrofitting of these vulnerable structures (“Twenty Years After the 6.8 Nisqually Earthquake, Are We Prepared for the Next One?”). Preparing for an earthquake saves lives and is much cheaper than picking up the pieces in the aftermath of an earthquake. Although we have made some great progress since 2021, such as our launch of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system, I am disappointed to say that we still have a long way to go. Unlike California, Washington has no law mandating seismic retrofitting of older structures. In 2022, the Legislature provided more than $100 million to modernize or replace at-risk school buildings across Washington; However, this is a drop in the bucket compared to the hundreds of potentially unsafe school buildings amounting to billions of dollars in needs. And a new bill to take the first steps toward a retrofit-enabling program (House Bill 1810) just died in committee in the session now underway.

Indifference to this deadly danger that we know and understand so well is unconscionable. Our region has grown tremendously in the 20th century to become the center of vitality and commerce that it is today, but this infrastructure is aging and much of it is not up to modern building standards and standards. This is not unique to us, but when we add the risk of seismic tremors (Washington is second only to California in risk of earthquake damage among the 50 states), we have a special problem that needs to be addressed more seriously.

There’s a saying among earthquake safety professionals: “Earthquakes don’t kill people; buildings do.” Our experience with earthquakes around the world suggests that modern building codes can prevent almost all loss of life. The same applies to repairing old structures. Architects can modernize unreinforced masonry buildings by anchoring walls to floors without compromising their beautiful and historic architecture.

The only thing we know for sure is that an earthquake like the Nisqually quake will strike again. The US Geological Survey estimates that there is an 85% probability that we will experience a similar earthquake within the next 50 years – a much greater probability than the probability of a large offshore earthquake in our lifetime. The 1965 Puget Sound earthquake and the 1949 Olympia earthquakes, with a magnitude of 6.7, were the same type as the earthquake that occurred in Nisqually. That’s three years in less than six decades, so the uneventful 25 years since 2001 should not lead us into complacency. There is no guarantee that the next one will not be worse. A 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurring beneath Seattle or Tacoma would likely be deadly, and would certainly be much more damaging.

One positive aspect that can be traced directly back to the 2001 earthquake is the complete revitalization of Seattle’s waterfront, after the bridge was replaced by the Interstate 99 tunnel. Retrofitting, especially of historic buildings in the heart of our towns and cities, is also a revitalization, bringing economic and lifestyle benefits that go far beyond earthquake safety.

Although HB 1810 is not moving forward now — the legislative session isn’t over until it is over — there are still opportunities for our lawmakers to find room in the budget to address the need for a modernization program. If Washington has the will, we certainly have the means to make our state safer and better before the next earthquake strikes.

Harold Tobin: Professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Washington, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network and state seismologist.

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