Probable study of a 6.8 m earthquake from a fault line in South Auckland

Researchers have discovered the potential for a “major earthquake” with “severe consequences” to hit parts of Auckland, with a potential magnitude of 6.8.

The Mangatangi Fault, which runs alongside the Honua Range in south Auckland, has now been identified as active by researchers at the University of Auckland.

In a study published today in the New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, the research marks the first time the Auckland fault line or the Hona Range has been radiocarbon dated.

Dr James Morehead, co-author of the research, said this highlights how little is known about the seismic history of the region.

Co-author Dr James Morehead. (Source: University of Auckland)

“If the entire fault ruptures, there are likely to be serious consequences for people living in South Auckland, and possibly central Auckland as well.”

The fault has been determined to be active because it has ruptured within the past 10,000 years. Any bug that has moved within the past 125,000 is considered active.

Morehead said Auckland’s seismic risk level “is clearly not the same as Wellington or much of the South Island”, but it “may be much higher than the public and policymakers think – we need more realistic information to know.”

The Mangitangi Fault is located south of Auckland. (Source: University of Auckland)

If Auckland’s seismic risk rating was raised to moderate from low, this would impose more stringent requirements under the building code.

Auckland also continued to expand southwest, meaning more people and critical infrastructure became closer to the Mangatangi Fault, the researchers said.

Hannah Martin, a former masters student in geosciences at the University of Auckland, said the rift may not burst again for “thousands of years”.

Former University of Auckland MSc Geosciences student Hannah Martin. (Source: University of Auckland)

“However, this is an active fault with the potential to generate a large earthquake in an area where you would not expect one to occur.”

Muirhead said Auckland experiences earthquakes every year — including very small ones locally and larger regional quakes from further afield — but people usually don’t notice them.

Last year, the government exempted Auckland from earthquake-prone building rules due to the low risk of earthquakes.

Co-author Dr. Jennifer Eccles. (Source: University of Auckland)

Now, Muirhead, along with two co-authors of the Mangatangi study, Dr Jennifer Eccles, from the University of Auckland, and Professor Mark Stirling, from the University of Otago, are investigating more Auckland faults to see how active they are in a separate project funded by the Natural Hazards Commission.

The University of Auckland said the team is using advanced mapping, ground-penetrating radar and trenching to uncover evidence of past earthquakes.

“It is always best to plan based on evidence rather than our best hopes or worst fears,” Eccles said.

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