The science behind successive earthquakes that have struck northern VenezuelaExBulletin

NPR’s Michel Martin talks with seismologist Judith Hubbard of Cornell University about the science behind multiple earthquakes in Venezuela, Japan and Northern California on Wednesday.

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

We wanted to spend a few minutes talking about the science behind these earthquakes in Venezuela. So we called seismologist Judith Hubbard. She’s a visiting professor at Cornell University. Good morning, professor. Thank you very much for joining us.

Judith Hubbard: Good morning, Michelle.

MARTIN: So the USGS, as John just told us, is telling us that these were two earthquakes, magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 and a minute apart. Now, this may seem like a haircut, given the loss of life we’re already seeing. But are you convinced that these are two major earthquakes in a row? If so, how common is something like this?

Hubbard: So cascading earthquakes could happen. It’s certainly in the geological record, it’s happened within the last decade. I don’t know for sure if I would call this two earthquakes. I think we’ll need to see more science emerge. A 7.2 magnitude earthquake, like the first one, will take about 30 or 40 seconds to end. So whether you’re drawing the line between that and the other is a little unclear to me. I think people in the area would have felt this as a very large earthquake. This is what I see from people’s reports.

MARTIN: And what can we expect in terms of aftershocks?

HUBBARD: Well, we know that big earthquakes produce a lot of aftershocks. There are aftershocks forecast from the USGS now. Normally, we would see, you know, at least one aftershock of about magnitude 6.5, but there is a possibility that there will be larger aftershocks, including, although the probability is very low, earthquakes larger than magnitude 7.5 in the coming days or months.

Martin: Wow. So, based on the data that you’ve studied and know, what are we looking at in terms of loss of life and property damage because of this?

HUBBARD: One of the things you have to know about an earthquake of this size is that you see it on a map as a dot. This is not a point. It was an earthquake that ruptured a fault probably 100 or 150 kilometers long. And what that means is that there are a lot of people living near this fault, which is likely just north of the coast. Last night, it was a little unclear what the rupture looked like. This morning, we’re seeing models showing the rupture starting west of Caracas and moving east toward Caracas, getting quite close. So it looks like there are a lot of areas in that high intensity vibration region.

MARTIN: So, while we’re reporting that this – whether this is one event or two events, we’re reporting that this is one of the most dangerous events in the history of Venezuela. Is this area particularly prone to earthquakes, and if so, why?

Hubbard: Yes, this is actually a plate boundary, and it’s between the South American plate and the Caribbean plate. The Caribbean plate moves about 20 mm eastward each year, which may seem like a small amount, only 2 cm. It’s about an inch, but it adds up. This movement is irregular, like earthquakes. The error will increase the pressure and then they will slide at once. So this earthquake could have released a lot of that strain. We don’t know yet how much sliding there was, but I think it was a few metres. What that means is if you see a fault line, you’ll see things actually moving, you know, offset by a few meters from before the earthquake to after.

Martin: Okay. Now, forgive me if this is a stupid question, okay? But there was also a 7.2 magnitude earthquake off the coast of northern Japan about half an hour after the Venezuela quakes. Is it possible that the two are related?

HUBBARD: You know, normally, I would say it’s impossible that a magnitude 7 in one part of the country couldn’t be tied to a magnitude 7 on the other side of the world. I still think this is very unlikely, but the fact is that the shaking waves from the Venezuela earthquake would have reached Japan before the second earthquake started there. So it’s technically possible, and there’s a term for it. It’s called dynamic running. However, I think it’s very unlikely because the area that produced this ~7 magnitude earthquake in Japan only had a magnitude of 7.5 last December, so it’s still in the aftershock period.

MARTIN: And earlier today, Wednesday, a 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck Northern California. So, how often do we see days with this kind of seismic activity?

HUBBARD: This is clearly high seismic activity, because it was a magnitude 7.5 in Venezuela. But we have to – you have to think about why you care about these earthquakes. If there was that earthquake in Japan or especially that earthquake in California on a normal day, no one would really blink. If the earthquake that struck California had occurred elsewhere, no one would have blinked. There is 5.6 second power throughout. So it’s high, but that’s mostly due to the big earthquake that hit Venezuela.

MARTIN: And because there are people there and because there are people there because…

HUBBARD: And because there are people. This is correct. Many earthquakes go completely unnoticed because they occur in the middle of the ocean or in a desert area with no people. But this is clearly not the case here.

Martin: Thank you very much for that. This is Judith Hubbard, a visiting professor at Cornell University and co-author and writer for the Earthquake Insights Substack. Professor Hubbard, thank you very much.

Hubbard: Thank you very much.

(sound of music)

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