The Great Earthquake Debate: An Interview with Seismologist and Author Susan Hogg

In the early 20th century, controversy raged about the hazards of the Southern California earthquake. Fascinated by the opponents, seismologist Susan Hough wrote a book about it.

Written by Alka Tripathi Lang, PhD (@DrAlkaTrip)

Quote from Tripathy-Lang, Alka, (2020), The Great Quake Debate: An Interview with Seismologist and Author Susan Hogg, Temblor, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.115

Front Cover of The Great Quake Debate by Susan Hugh.

Susan Hogg grew up as a child who self-described as a “weird kid” whose hobbies were reading, writing and arithmetic. She was always fond of the “writing” part, writing poems, stories and even comics in her spare time. She spent her childhood shuttling around North America due to her academic father, but landed in earthquake country to earn her undergraduate degree at UC Berkeley. She was originally planning to major in mathematics, astronomy, or computer science, and ended up taking courses in geophysics. She found the math-focused major appealing for its real-world relevance, and went on to pursue a PhD. From the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego. After four years at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory in New York, she returns to California as a seismologist for the United States Geological Survey (USGS), where she continues to research countless subjects in seismology for her day-to-day job, while writing books and working on her grandchildren in Her spare time.

In her latest book, The Great Quake Debate, published July 23, 2020, Hogg introduces the two men on both sides of an important scientific and societal question in the early 20th century. On one side stood geologist Billy Willis, described as a charismatic crusader who predicted a major earthquake in southern California. The other side was led by fellow geologist Robert T. Hale, described as the ornate skeptic who denounced Welles’ bold claim. With the benefit of hindsight, we know that Willis’ predictions were based on miscalculations. Of course, on the bigger question of whether Los Angeles faces a major earthquake risk, we now know that Willis was right. At the time, however, the issue of southern California seismic risk was looming large for scientists, companies, and citizens of the greater Los Angeles area, as well as those who wanted to migrate to the bustling oil city.

In our conversation, edited for length and clarity, Hogg shares her thoughts on this, her sixth book, her inspiration, and how the lessons of the two main characters are turning into modern problems – climate change and the coronavirus in between.

Alka Tripathy-Lang (AT): What motivated you to write this book?

Susan Hogg (SH): I was researching the 1925 Santa Barbara earthquake [which played a pivotal role in the debate]. I went to Huntington Library to read the papers of Billy Willis because he was right on the spot when that earthquake happened. It occurred to me that he was one of those interesting people in science about whom not much has been written.

The expedition destroyed Santa Barbara, after the earthquake of June 29, 1925. Credit: Public Domain.

I also realized, although I never thought much about it, that there are different situations [Hill’s role] In the central debate. There is the classic Hill take in the back pocket of the business community. Then there is another method which is completely set up by local boosters in town. I wondered what the real story was.

As I began looking at Hill and Willis, I realized how interesting their lives were individually, but also how strangely balanced their lives were. They were born around the same time, served in the USGS during the agency’s early years, and had a long history together as colleagues and competitors. The more you click on it, the more interesting the story gets.

Geologists Billy Willis and Robert T. Hill on a field trip to Johns Hopkins University while they both worked for the USGS. This photo, taken April 30, 1897 in Jefferson Rock, Harper Ferry in West Virginia, features both of them among their classmates. Credit: Joseph S. Diller, USGS Picture Library.

AT: Tell me a little about Hill and Willis. How do you relate to them?

SH: When you dive into both of their childhoods, they both emerge as sympathetic characters. What Hill went through as a very young child his family torn apart by the Civil War, and then on the border of Texas … to rise above that and make his way to Cornell is absolutely amazing. Willis was the most privileged one, growing up like the apple of his mother’s eye. However, he lost his father at a young age and had never had a father figure in his life.

Writing about historical figures is really interesting because you can start to relate to what people have gone through and how they interacted. Willis made an unfounded prediction. It caught people’s attention, but in my view, it crossed a line that scientists should not cross. I definitely relate more to Hail, the person who [I imagine] He said, “No, this prediction is not based on phonology, you can’t say that.” If you were to divide the scholars into skeptics or crusaders, I am definitely cut off from the skeptical mold.

AT: The book is packed with other minor, yet important characters. Who else has had a major influence on the debate?

SH: There was this guy, Ralph Arnold, who was an interesting character. He was a geologist who got into the oil industry and got very rich. But he was well connected with politics and was very influential – the ultimate politician. It shows how people can play a big role behind the scenes. You have people who can end up center stage and visible, but then there are the movers and shakers that you may never have heard of before influencing what happens.

AT: As I mentioned in the book, it’s really hard to figure out what drives people primary.

SH: You find these tales along the way. It is often not immediately clear why people or organizations do what they do and what their interests are. Not only did I look at what happened, but why it happened. What are the driving forces and drivers you play? You don’t always find all the answers, but I was very fortunate to have very good archive material that helped me put loads of puzzle pieces together.

AT: What are some lessons from the book?

SH: One of the lessons is to emphasize the challenges of scientific communication. In any developing field, you have scientists trying to sort things out. Knowledge is not perfect. There are discussions. There are points of agreement. There are messages that are important for the audience to hear.

The way this connection was made was difficult at the time, and it is challenging now. There is a very fine line with effective scientific communication when you are dealing with a potentially deadly danger. You want to get people’s attention. You want them to take it seriously. But you have to avoid crossing this line, to the hype, at which point the wolf cries and people catch you. It is as difficult today as it was back then.

Ultimately, however, things move forward in a messy and imperfect way. There are actual facts in science. Some things are not negotiable. And in seismology, earthquakes come and the result is settled. This is still true today. For example, there is a debate now about how strong the ground shaking in Los Angeles when we have an earthquake like the 1857 Fort Tigon event, and how modern tall buildings will respond. Ultimately, we’ll see a major earthquake coming south of San Andreas, and we’ll find out. We hope the building codes are right and it won’t be a big disaster.

Another lesson is that although there are debates in science, there is a body of knowledge – a group of agreement. If you look carefully at what Hill and Willis have said, they were both saying that mitigating risks is important and that buildings need to be built properly. They both know that there are faults and earthquakes in California. They were discussing the details.

AT: How do you think the book is appropriate given the risks we currently face, such as COVID-19 and climate change?

SH: Today, there are unknown things about [novel] Coronavirus, but there is still a basic body of knowledge that points us in a certain direction. We need to focus on that in terms of general messaging. We have to pass on what we do not know, but also what we know.

Another lesson from The Great Quake Debate is that there can be more events behind the scenes than what might be apparent to the audience. I don’t want to give away much of the story, but my research taught me that business leaders and civilian mourners at the time were not stupid. Anyone who lived, worked, or owned property in Los Angeles in the early 20th century had to care about earthquakes. They saw the headlines about the massive disaster that occurred after the 1923 earthquake near Kant, Japan. In the face of new risks today, regardless of the political leanings of business owners, they must take care of the health and safety of their employees and customers. This is why some major companies require masks to be worn inside their stores, even if the political leadership takes a stand against the requirements for masks.

When it comes to natural hazards – everything from earthquakes to biological pathogens – there is a common ground dictated by science, not politics, that we all want to find.

Are you interested in earthquake risks? Check it out at Temblor.

Alka Tripathy Lang is a freelance scholarly writer based in Chandler, Arizona, with a PhD. In earth sciences.

Latest posts by Alka Tripathy-Lang, PhD (see all)

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos