Health
Location of mobile phones used to estimate growth rate for COVID-19
3D printing of the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, before the 3D printing of SARS-CoV-2 viral particles. The spike protein (foreground) allows the virus to enter and infect human cells. In viral models, the surface of the virus (blue) is covered with spike proteins (red), which allows the virus to enter and infect human cells. Credit: NIH
According to a new study, COVID-19 infection rates are lower in counties where mobile phone activity at work has dropped significantly during home orders. Researchers believe that patterns seen on publicly available cell phone location data could be used to more accurately estimate COVID-19 growth rates and inform decision making regarding shutdowns and “restarts.” I am. This study was announced today JAMA Internal Medicine..
“It is our hope that the county may be able to incorporate these publicly available ones mobile phone “The data will help guide our strategy for resuming through various phases of the pandemic,” said Joshua Baker, MD, MD, associate professor of medicine and epidemiology, the lead author of the study. Location data to modeling strategies to predict at-risk counties across the United States before outbreaks grow.
Baker and other researchers, including Shiv T. Sehra, MD, associate professor at Harvard Medical School, who is the lead author of the study, analyzed using mobile phone location data anonymized and published by Google. did. From early January to early May 2020, activities took place in up to 2,740 counties in the United States. This data was divided into places where activities took place, from work to home. retail store, Grocery stores, parks, train stations, etc. Approximately 22,000 to 84,000 points of data were analyzed daily during the study.
The idea was to compare where mobile phone activity took place as a proxy and show where people themselves spent their time. This data was compared between two periods: the first January and February, before the COVID-19 outbreak in the US, mid-February to early May, during the first surge of the virus and at home. When the order is fulfilled.
Intuitively, they noticed that while spending more time at home, visits to the workplace were significantly reduced and visits to retail stores (such as stores and restaurants) and transit stations were reduced.
They found that visits to workplaces, as well as retail locations and transit stations, fell sharply in the initially denser case counties than in counties less susceptible to COVID-19. At the same time, household activities in these counties had a more pronounced spike.
In addition, the researchers confirmed that the counties with the least activity at work had the lowest incidence of new cases of COVID-19 over the next few days. Lag times of 5, 10, and 15 days were observed in anticipation of the COVID-19 incubation period, but declines in infection rates were maintained across the range.
Baker hopes that more work can be done to investigate cell phone data and see if it can be specifically used as a guide for predicting and making decisions for COVID-19 hotspots. ..
“It is important to identify the cells phone “The data will be useful at other stages beyond the initial containment of the pandemic. For example, will monitoring these data be useful during the pandemic’s resumption phase or during an outbreak?”
Beyond the immediate importance of COVID-19, Baker considers the future usefulness of this type of data.
“They may help us better understand behavioral patterns, as future researchers will predict the course of future epidemics and monitor the impact of various public health measures on people’s behavior. It could be helpful,” he said.
JAMA Internal Medicine (2020). DOI: 10.1001 / jamainternmed.2020.4288
Quote: Location of mobile phones used to estimate COVID-19 growth rate (31st August 2020) (31st August 2020, https: //medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-cell -Obtained from covid-growth.html)
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