Chinese skies clearer as factories remain closed

WASHINGTON China's far-reaching efforts to control the spread of the new coronavirus have shut down factories, emptied airports, and led to a sharp drop in emissions of carbon and other pollutants. However, analysts warn that the drop in pollution is likely to be temporary.

The immediate reduction in emissions is very dramatic, said Lauri Myllyvirta, senior analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki.

Using data from coal, steel, petroleum and other industries, Myllyvirta calculated that China's carbon emissions were 25% lower in the four weeks following the end of the Lunar New Year holidays, approximately in February compared to the same period last year.

He does not think the trend will continue.

The important question now is how the Chinese government will respond. To compensate for the loss of economic activity, including after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the usual response from governments is to launch massive stimulus packages targeting the chimney industries, he said. This would worsen the environment in the long run.

NASA and the European Space Agency say their pollution monitoring satellites over China have detected sharp declines since January in nitrogen dioxide, generally produced by motor vehicles, power plants and factories. There is evidence that the change is at least in part related to the economic downturn following the coronavirus epidemic, NASA said in a statement.

The drop in nitrogen dioxide was first detected around the epicenter of Wuhan, and then spread across the country, NASA said.

Satellite images released online by NASA on Monday show that the noxious cloud hanging over much of China almost disappeared between January 1 and February 25.

At the moment, people in many Chinese cities are breathing cleaner air.

Nationally, the level of nitrogen dioxide has dropped by 42% and the level of pollution by tiny PM2.5 particles that can get into the lungs and other organs has dropped 27%, according to government monitoring stations.

The people of Beijing weren't so lucky.

Capital smog, as measured by PM2.5 levels, was worse in February than in the same month last year. Steel mills in regions near Beijing have not closed, according to industry analysis from Myllyvirtas.

Beijing was also unlucky with its weather conditions, the winds blowing pollution towards Beijing, he said.

Since January, China has imposed broad travel bans, placed around 70 million people in virtual quarantine and urged those who can to work from home.

As of Monday, China had registered the vast majority of new coronavirus cases worldwide, 80,026 as well as deaths, which now stand at 2,912.

We obviously don't want a global pandemic to drive people's choices in the way they live and work, people suffer and die, said Kim Cobb, climatologist at Georgia Tech University in Atlanta.

She hopes, however, that the responses to the new coronavirus, in China and around the world, will cause more industries, including scientists, to think about how to refine remote work.

The American Physical Society, a scientific group, has canceled its annual meeting in March in Denver due to the rapid escalation of health concerns related to the spread of coronavirus disease, according to the website of the society.

Cobb, who is already limiting his travels due to concerns about airline carbon emissions, said: There must be an increased discussion in the scientific community on the best way to use virtual and conference technology in order that work does not depend on long-haul travel.

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The Associated Press Department of Health and Science is supported by the Department of Science Education at the Howard Hughes Medical Institutes. The AP is solely responsible for all content.