How do people use the aftershock predictions? The poll says …

Surveys reveal how different stakeholders have used forecasts of aftershocks in the aftermath of the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake in New Zealand.

Written by Dimaya Carey, Freelance Science Writer

Quote: Carey, Dee, 2020, How do people use aftershock predictions? Poll says …, Temblor, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.127

On November 14, 2016, a 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck near Kaikoura, New Zealand, causing strong shaking and structural damage in the upper northern and southern islands. In the aftermath of the earthquake, scientists released forecasts of aftershocks and informed agencies and the public, predicting the likelihood of aftershocks. In a new study, researchers looked at how agency decision-makers and the general public used and interpreted predictions of aftershocks after the Kaikoura earthquake. Their results indicate that while the public at large uses aftershock predictions in their decisions about earthquake risk, communication with forecasts can always be improved.

The 2016 Kaikoura earthquake in New Zealand caused massive damage to buildings and roads across the region. The rupture of the Kekerengu fault dislodged this road and the house by 10 meters. Image Source: Tim Little, Courtesy of the GeoNet New Zealand Project

Predicting aftershocks

Aftershock forecast is a tool that scientists use to inform the public of aftershock predictions. These forecasts are time-dependent probabilities of future earthquake hazards and risks and have been released by scientific organizations in the United States, New Zealand and Japan since the late 1970s. The aftershock predictions provide “a forecast of the amount and intensity of earthquakes that people can expect in a given period of interest, such as a day, month or decade,” says Ann Wayne, an operations research analyst at the US Geological Survey, who was not involved in the new research. Winn says that aftershock predictions are important, because they “can influence personal decisions about earthquake preparedness and decision communication to reduce earthquake exposure in response (crisis) situations and long-term planning”. In the aftermath of the Christchurch earthquake of magnitude 6.2 in 2011, Wayne saw these earthquake predictions used in future building standards and land use policy changes. Hence, she says, it is important that these forecasts are clearly communicated so that people can prepare for aftershocks and for policies to mitigate earthquake risks and risks.

These aftershock forecast maps for New Zealand’s South Island near Kaikoura indicate a probability of a magnitude 7 earthquake within 30 days (left) and one year (right) from the date the maps were produced (19 December 2016). A 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck Kaikoura a month ago, on November 14, 2016. Credit: Becker et al., (2020), SRL, © Seismological Society of America

How to use aftershock predictions

After the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, sociologist Julia Baker of GNS Science and Massey University in New Zealand and her colleagues in disaster communication research wanted to understand how people use earthquake predictions. About a month after the main shock, researchers conducted a survey of scientists, technicians, and support personnel at GNS Science and several other agencies, including emergency managers, planners, and responders. The surveys, consisting of 12 quantitative square markers and qualitative free answer questions, were used to understand how people in different locations and with varying degrees of experience understood expectations and how they used them in their daily lives.

Survey questions included where respondents lived and worked, their perception of the probability of the current earthquake, their use of aftershock predictions for decision-making and what they thought was the best way to find or receive aftershock predictions.

The poll says …

Surveys revealed that the majority of respondents had seen aftershocks predictions in the aftermath of the November earthquake, Baker and her colleagues said in Seismology Research Letters. Many survey respondents also used aftershock predictions for decision-making purposes, such as considering securing the foundation in their homes, installing furniture on their walls, and having more conversations about earthquake preparedness. “We found that people were more reactive to expectations than we thought,” says Baker.

Here, a rupture appears in the surface along the Papatea Fault from the Kaikoura earthquake. Researchers asked stakeholders after the event how they used the aftershock predictions. Image Source: Photo by Julian Thompson, Courtesy of the New Zealand GeoNet Project

However, the surveys revealed challenges in the communication of forecasting aftershocks, the team reported. One of the main challenges was that survey respondents from agencies who were more technically savvy were more comfortable understanding the intricacies of forecasting aftershocks while less technical agencies and members of the general public suffered more often. This finding is in line with previous studies which concluded that a variety of basic and technical information for aftershock predictors, which are provided via different media, are necessary to suit the diverse technical backgrounds and needs of users (Wein et al., 2016, and Becker et al., 2019). ). Another challenge in communications related to aftershock predictions was that many stakeholders were unsure of how to apply the aftershock prediction information to decisions made during the emergency response and recovery. To overcome these challenges, the authors suggest that scientists identify and work in partnerships with communities to develop feedback prediction communications that better serve a particular community or audience. They also recommend that communication materials for predictions of future aftershocks include clear recommendations for specific actions to be taken to reduce risks. One way is to increase the presence of scientific agencies on social media, so questions about the predictions can be answered quickly online by the seismologists themselves. Explored in the Bombay Beach Swarm in 2016 (McBride et al., 2020).

Communications forecasts are the best part of the US Geological Survey released after the 4.5-magnitude El Monte earthquake in southern California. Credit: USGS

Wayne says this research has implications for how future expectations are communicated. Using the lessons learned and insights gained from these surveys, scientists have already made changes to their communications for forecasts of earthquakes in Alaska in 2018 (Michael et al., 2019), California in 2019, and Puerto Rico in 2020. The US Geological Survey is currently the only government agency that relays Predict aftershocks on a regular basis, says Sarah McBride of the USGS, a co-author of the current study. The U.S. Geological Survey thresholds for issuing forecasts are 5 degrees or higher for earthquakes in the United States. At the moment, she says, they only issue forecasts in the United States and associated territories.

This research even reported publishing forecasts of other natural hazards, in particular the 2019 eruption of Whakaari White Island. A lot of progress has been made when it comes to trying to understand and talk about the forecast, Becker notes. But, as the authors of the paper describe, it is important that organizations and agencies continue to explore ways to communicate expectations more effectively.

Further reading

Becker, JS, Potter, SH, McBride, SK, Doyle, EE, Gerstenberger, MC, & Christophersen, A. (2020). Predicting a Fractured Earth: A case study for communication and use of aftershocks predictions from the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand. Earthquake Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190354.

Becker, JS, Potter, SH, McBride, SK, Wein, A., Doyle, EEH, & Paton, D. (2019). When the Earth Does Not Stop Shaking: How Experiments Over Time Affected the Information Needs, Communication, and Interpretation of Aftershock Information During the Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.12.009

McBride, SK, Llenos, AL, Page, MT, & van der Elst, N. (2019). #EarthquakeAdvisory: An exploration of discourse between government officials, news media and social media during Bombay Beach Swarm 2016. Earthquake Research Messages. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190082

Michael, AJ, McBride, SK, Hardebeck, JL, Barall, M., Martinez, E., Page, MT, van der Elst, N., Field, EH, Milner, KR, Wein, AM (2019). Statistical Seismology and Communications for United States Geological Survey Operational Aftershocks Forecast for the November 30, 2018 Mw 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska earthquake. Earthquake Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190196

Wayne, A, Potter, S, Johal, S, Doyle, E, Baker, GS (2016). Communicating with the Audience during Earthquake Sequences: Improving Communication between Earth Sciences by Coordinating Role. Earthquake Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220150113

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