Health
Experts warn against falling numbers and concluding conclusions about UK virus mortality
Health experts warn that it’s too early to come to a conclusion Official mortality The UK suggests that social distance restrictions can take up to a month to have a noticeable effect.
Latest figures released by Ministry of Public Health The United Kingdom (DHSC) Hospital death The disease associated with this condition in the UK has increased 621 from the previous day.
This number is down from the 708 deaths recorded on Friday and is the first time since March 29 that the number has been lower than the previous day.
However, Bharat Pankhania, a senior clinical lecturer at Exeter University School of Medicine, said Covid-19’s mortality rate could not be said to be “in a specific trajectory.”
“The uptrend is still routine and expected to fluctuate,” he said.
“I don’t think Covid 19’s daily mortality rate is on a particular trajectory, so I think it’s too early.
“We expect these kinds of fluctuations. In fact, if the trend was always in one direction without correction or confirmation, it would be suspicious. This is a normal pattern.”
Pankania added that it was too early to suggest that the number of cases was approaching the plateau.
“I expect that the number of cases will continue to increase, rather than ramping down once the plateau is reached,” he said.
Simon Clark, associate professor of cell microbiology at Reading University, said the news that the daily increase was small was “welcome” but should not be taken as evidence of a decrease in deaths.
“We must always remember that these figures do not include community deaths and represent part of the national situation,” he said.
“For the same reason, I don’t know if it’s important that the number of newly diagnosed infections surge today, the next phase in which the daily increase in numbers is expected to plateau a few days later. You just know that you have arrived. Consistent data. “
It may also be too early to see the impact of social distance due to “inevitable delays” in data recording.
“Usually, they die almost three weeks after illness, usually about five days after exposure to the virus,” said Peter Openshaw, professor of medicine at Imperial College London.
“We do not expect to reduce fatalities until about a month has passed since the measures were taken.
“Current measures are aimed at limiting the disease to the home, and secondary cases in the home should take some time to be reflected in the statistics.
“Given this unavoidable delay, there are some early signs that the actions already taken have some effect.”
Professor Openshaw did not rule out the possibility that more stringent measures would be introduced, but the main problem now is that some people have not already “ fully monitored ” those already imposed by the government Was added.
It warns that British Health Secretary Matt Hancock has to change their behavior so that a “minority” of those breaking social distance rules can unlock lockdown restrictions sooner Come on.
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