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Professor UA: Arizona May Reach COVID-19 “Crisis” After Thanksgiving | Health
Coronavirus cases continue to increase in Pima County and Arizona, and public health experts are worried that the condition could be disastrous during the holiday season.
“I don’t think we’ll reach a particular crisis before Thanksgiving,” said Dr. Joe Gerald, an associate professor at the University of Arizona’s Zuckerman School of Public Health. “But as we move towards Christmas and New Year with Thanksgiving, we will eventually reach a crisis.”
According to the Arizona Department of Health, the total number of new cases in Pima County has recently increased by 32% weekly to 1,207, with 11% of diagnostic tests from October 18-24 to October 25-31. Has increased. Chart of COVID-19 cases by date as of Friday.
In the same time frame, new cases increased by 12% across the state to 9,069, and the number of diagnostic tests performed increased by 5%.
The percentage of positive diagnostic tests also continues to rise weekly. According to AZDHS data, Pima County doubled from 3% to 6% from the end of September to the last week of October. It also almost doubled from 4% to 7% across the state in the same time frame.
Dr. Francisco Garcia, Chief Health Officer of Pima County, said the continued increase was the result of community infections. He said he analyzed census data and addresses and found that no single region was driving the growth.
“It’s the part that is a little worrisome and a little anxious,” he said.
He believes that a major contributor to the increase in the number of cases is not only pandemic fatigue, where people neglect their efforts to control the spread of the virus, but also small gatherings.
“Interestingly, even if schools start to open, what we see in schools isn’t really the spread of schools,” he said, adding that there were exceptions for cheerleading teams, soccer and volleyball teams. I did. “Children in the classroom seem to be relatively safe and relatively energetic. Cases identified and associated with school are not taken at school.”
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Despite the increase, he said Pima County feels better compared to both the state and the country. This is mainly possible because the demographics that are sick here are unlikely to be hospitalized or have a serious illness.
“I think that’s why it didn’t die — at least not yet. It doesn’t mean it can’t be done,” he said.
In Pima County, there were 118 cases per 100,000 in the last week of October, while in Arizona there were about 131 cases per 100,000.
The counties in Arizona that have been hit hardest in the last few weeks have been rural counties. For example, more cases are found in populous counties such as Pima a Maricopa, but the cases of COVID-19 are higher in Hira and Graham.
Throughout the state, the proportion of beds in general wards among COVID-19 patients has increased since September, Gerald said in a report released last week.
“Our banner team has resumed weekly gatherings to discuss COVID,” Gerald said, referring to Banner Health, Arizona’s hospital network. “They are on the rise, and another thing that complicates the situation right now is the presence of out-of-state transfers.”
Gerald added in a report that deaths are also slowly increasing across the state, well below the April and May mortality rates. The worst week was July.
In Pima County, hospitalizations have also increased in recent weeks, but well below their July peaks, Garcia said.
“For some time, we’re starting to think we’ll seesaw this way until we reach levels of community immunity with vaccination,” he said. “I’m starting to wonder what the new normal will look like in the coming months.”
Regarding further restrictions, Garcia said the state would be responsible for the stay-at-home order. The county can enact several policies such as restaurants and pools, but there is no evidence that they are currently a major driver of community expansion. This includes face-to-face education.
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