Focus on the success of state repression

So what does he say to them? How did you achieve such a plunge?

“If there is a lesson for someone, it is achievable and the real benefit is to reach those sustainable low numbers and use the lessons learned during that period to maintain them. “Professor Sutton said.

Minimizing huge risk factors in areas such as elderly care, where nearly all of Victoria’s 819 COVID-19 deaths occur, is another major lesson, he said. ..

“We obviously learned a lot about what a difficult setting is,” he said. [is] Amplified environment for slaughterhouses and food distribution centers, as well as other highly mobile and highly mobile warehouse centers. “

Professor Sutton said the blockade of Melbourne was just one of a series of steps that helped push down our tally.

“Stage 4-limits aren’t science-it was the tool used,” he said.

“But the lesson from Melbourne is all that we did when we reduced the number. How to tackle the time required for pathological examinations, time to manage cases and contacts and time to manage outbreaks. How we worked on shortening, agent-based modeling that tells us where we get and how we get there-all of this shared with the Irish Minister of Health and other public health professionals. it was done.”

Despite all these efforts, some experts have stated that Victoria will never eliminate the daily cases of the new COVID-19. But the recent record run of “Donut Day” proved it wrong.

Some epidemiologists believe that the transition to continuous days without new cases is so dramatic that there are signs that the state may be on the road to eliminating the virus. But the government is having a hard time stating that the policy is not an exclusion policy and even talking about it is dangerous.

Instead, test chief Yeron Weimar characterized the policy as one of the “aggressive repressions” and Victoria “is not heading for exclusion, so no one should think we are better than this. Not. “

The state’s longest COVID free run since February was the 10th consecutive day of zero new cases in Victoria on Monday.

As of Monday, there were four active cases in Victoria from the peak of 6767 on August 8. But that doesn’t mean that Victorians need to start thinking it’s all over.

When Prime Minister Daniel Andrews announced further deregulation on Sunday, he said it was a celebration and at the same time be cautious. “The most important of all we all have to do is to maintain a course on this to be as stubborn as a virus,” he said.

“But no one can guess because there was a zero for nine days (on Sunday). It’s gone and somehow these numbers are the same as the vaccine against this deadly virus. It’s not.

“All the work done to bring us here is maintained, keeps us in a place where we can continue to be open, more economic activity, more social freedom. I’m really convinced that we have the rules to drive. Greater connections with the people we missed the most. “

Despite caution, Victoria feels like it has witnessed a major recovery just two weeks before many denied the state could reach zero.

Professor Sutton Said The last remaining case in Victoria was one of the “most tricky” cases in the world.

But instead of having a “stubborn tail,” as Professor Sutton reiterated, the Victorian epidemic curve shows that our highest peak was followed by a similarly sharp decline. ..

The number of positive Victorians per day peaked at 725 on August 5. Two weeks later, that number dropped to 208. Two weeks later, I was 87 years old.

In the first two weeks of October, the state averaged less than 10 cases per day. The first zero-day since the second wave was October 26th.

According to Adrian Estherman, a biostatistician at the University of South Australia, this was driven by months of blockades and forced masking, as well as dramatic improvements in contact tracing.

“Victoria has only done what all other states and territories can do, except New South Wales. New South Wales will be zero and stay there,” he said. ..

He said the elimination of the absence of circulating viruses is a realistic possibility in Victoria. But to know that it was definitely gone, Professor Estherman wanted to see zero cases for at least 28 days.

Professor Tony Blakely, one of the authors of modeling behind the Victoria State Government’s virus response, has been credited with deciding not to resume the blockade until the incident averages less than five times a day. I said it should be. Contact tracing … and of course, good luck. “

Dr. Jason Thompson, a computational social scientist who built the modeling used by the Victoria State Government, said his scenario showed a sharp decline to exclusion rather than a stubborn tail.

“The general wisdom is that it’s impossible,” he said. “The government said this was impossible.

“But every time I created a model, I was able to zero the model. If I had a control in place, it would be zero.”

Dr. Thompson said the virus could be eliminated as long as the contact information of the infected person could be identified, tracked, and quarantined.

But the threat is not over yet. Leakage from quarantine is a constant threat, but the virus continues to circulate in New South Wales.

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“If there is an aggression, it will come back,” said Dr. Thompson. “If you look around the world, successful countries are island nations or countries with tight border control. There are no completely impervious borders.”

High test rates are another tool that can help show how many cases there are in the community.

Victoria has tested more than 13,500 people a day on average over the last two weeks – More than double the number in early June, When the second wave seeds are planted.

Professor Catherine Bennett, Deakin University’s Director of Epidemiology, said: “The continuation of these zero-day attacks gives a strong signal that there are few undetected viruses.

“It’s time to shift our focus to preventative strategies to protect this, strengthen sentry surveillance, catch the last possible cases there, and detect new cases when the border opens. It was. “