The prevalence of coronavirus remains high, but there is some evidence of a slowdown.Imperial news

Coronavirus infections in the United Kingdom continue to increase, but growth may have slowed in the second half of recent studies on community prevalence.

As part of a major ongoing study led by Imperial College London and Ipsosmori, a test of more than 160,000 people from October 16th to November 2nd showed that the number of infected people was 2 from the previous full-round test. It is shown to be more than doubled. According to the latest figures, more than 1 in 80 people in the UK are infected with the virus, accounting for 1.3% of the population. 1 in 170 as of early October (0.6%).

These important data provide an important baseline for determining whether new measures are effective in curbing epidemic growth. Professor Paul Elliott Faculty of Public Health, Empire

These data Add to interim report Looking at the first 85,000 people tested as part of this round, we found a similar infection rate at 1.28%.

The epidemic continued to spread rapidly in the first half of the study period, with a national R above 1, but the latest swab results suggest that infections decreased and then increased. But it’s too early to tell if this is flat or represents a temporary decline followed by continued growth, researchers say.

The number of infectious diseases is so high nationwide that it leads to increased hospitalizations and deaths, so continuous action is needed to reduce prevalence and prevent further illness and loss of life.

Professor Paul Elliott, Program Director of Imperial, said: “The latest REACT test provides robust data on the status of the coronavirus just three days before the UK enters its second national blockade. It shows that the prevalence of infection remains high. There is an increasing need to act to reduce infections and control the virus.

“These important data provide an important baseline for determining whether new measures are effective in curbing epidemic growth.”

Results of these findings from Real-time assessment of community infections (REACT 1) Program Available in preprint report, With support data, submitted for peer review.

Regional trends in coronavirus infections

The REACT 1 study tracks current coronavirus infections in the community by testing more than 150,000 randomly selected people monthly for two weeks. Volunteers take a cotton swab from their nose and throat at home and analyze it in the laboratory using a technique called RT-PCR.

Of the 160,175 swabs analyzed, 1,172 were positive. This means that an estimated 130 people per 10,000 people in England were infected after weighting to represent England’s population.

On average, infections have doubled every 24 days since the last full test, with an estimated reproduction number (R) of 1.19.

Prevalence remains high nationwide, but regional differences remain, with some regions reversing the trends observed in the interim report. For example, the rapid increase in infectious diseases observed in the South no longer appeared in the latest tests. In addition, the Yorkshire and the Humber, which previously had the highest prevalence, showed a reduction in positive tests with the latest data.

Northland and Midland remain the worst affected areas, with the highest prevalence in Northwest and Yorkshire and the Humber (2.4% and 2.3%, respectively). The prevalence in London was 0.97%, but the lowest numbers were found in the eastern and southeastern regions (0.69%).

Community transmission

Since REACT began monitoring the UK epidemic in May, studies have shown that certain groups, ethnic minority individuals, and people living in poorer areas and large households have been disproportionately affected. Has been observed. However, the latest results show that these trends are diminishing, suggesting that the epidemic has progressed from clustering in specific risk groups to general spread in the community.

It’s important to keep a close eye on the situation in the next test round, scheduled later this month. Professor Stephen Riley Imperial College London

Professor Stephen Riley, author of the study and professor of imperial infectious disease dynamics, said: ..

“That’s why it’s important to keep a close eye on the situation in the next test round planned for later this month. Combined with today’s report, these timely data provide evidence to inform decision makers. It forms part of the base. “

Track epidemic progress

The REACT program is a series of studies that monitor how the virus spreads across the country. It is carried out in partnership with Ipsos MORI and Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust on behalf of the Ministry of Health.

We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the general public for offering to participate. Kelly beaver They die

Kelly Beaver, Managing Director of Public Relations at Ipsos Mori, said: “The conclusions of another round of REACT studies highlighted the importance of real-time tracking of COVID-19 across the UK. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to all the general public for offering to participate and are now in Round 7. Encourages those who receive the letter to participate in the next round of research. “

Another division of the program, REACT 2, uses antibody finger stab tests to monitor past infections throughout the United Kingdom. The latest findings can be found here..