COVID-19 Travel Restrictions Effective in Countries with Low Cases: The Lancet Study

Researchers used detailed flight data to compare the number of COVID-19 cases expected to arrive from international flights with the number of infections resulting from infections in individual countries. (AP photo)

Travel restrictions are valid in a few countries COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears According to a study published in, there is a strong travel relationship with cases or countries with high viral infection rates Lancet Public Health journal.

The study also suggests that travel restrictions may have been most effective in the early stages. Pandemic, And if the virus has already spread rapidly in the country, the countermeasures are unlikely to be effective.

“We recognize that these measures have high economic and social costs, so it is important for the government to use travel restrictions in a targeted manner,” said the London School of Economics and. Professor Markgit of Tropical Medicine said.

“Before introducing restrictions, we need to take into account the number of infections in the region, the rate of epidemic growth, and the number of travelers arriving from countries that are heavily affected by the virus,” Jit explained. ..

Using detailed flight data, the researchers compared the number of COVID-19 cases expected to arrive from international flights with the number of infections resulting from infections in each country.

They made estimates for overseas travelers in May and September 2020 based on two scenarios.

One scenario used flight data for the same month of 2019, assuming no decrease in travel counts, and the other scenario was based on the expected decrease in passenger numbers.

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The number of cases and infection rate of COVID-19 was estimated using a mathematical model that adjusts the recorded cases for asymptomatic and unreported infections.

Results were determined using country-specific reproduction or R estimates based on how imported COVID-19 cases affect the growth rate of epidemics in the region.

The study found that if imported cases accounted for more than 10% of infections in individual countries, they were thought to have a significant impact on the spread of the epidemic.

The study estimates that less than 10% of imported cases usually have a small effect on epidemic spread, and less than 1% of cases have a negligible effect on epidemic scale.

Researchers said that in the absence of travel restrictions and travel volume reductions in May 2020, imported COVID-19 cases would account for more than 10% of infections in the majority of countries included in the analysis. ..

They said that imported cases accounted for less than 10% of infections in 34 of 136 countries and less than 1% in 4 countries.

According to estimates based on estimated passenger numbers in May 2020, imported cases contributed more than 10% of the total incidence in 74 countries, less than 10% and less than 1% of the total incidence in 62 countries. It is considered. In 8 countries.

However, by September 2020, if there were no travel restrictions or reduced travel volumes, imported cases would account for more than 10% of infections in very few countries.

Researchers said imported cases accounted for less than 10 percent of infections in 106 of 162 countries and less than 1 percent in 21 countries.

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Travel restrictions contributed more than 10% in only 37 countries, less than 10% in 125 countries, and less than 1% in 44 countries, according to estimates based on estimated passenger numbers in September 2020. ..

Researchers have shown that travel restrictions were the most effective way to limit local transmission of the virus in the early stages of a pandemic, the researchers said.

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