What do we know about the rapidly prevailing variant of Covid in the UK? | Coronavirus

A rapidly spreading variant of Sars-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19) has given Boris Johnson a government “Christmas bubble” against Britain, including a “stay-at-home order” targeting London and many of them. I had to reduce my plans south and east of England.

These additional restrictions on millions of people Several months Until the vaccine is rolled out throughout the UK. But what do scientists ever tell us about this variant, and do we need to worry?

What do we know about this new variant?

It is not surprising that this new variant has emerged, as all viruses, and in fact the coronavirus, are constantly mutating.

Dr. Muge Cevik, a member of the government’s New Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group (Nervtag), said more than 4,000 mutations have been observed in Sars-Cov-2 so far, and perhaps only a handful of mutations. significance.

Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitti said the new variant found in southeastern England was up to 70% more infectious and could raise the R rating by 0.4 or more. Given the data so far, it does not appear to increase the risk of serious illness or death.

so Overview of Nervtag A committee expert released on Sunday wrote that this variant has “moderate confidence” that it shows a significant increase in transmission rates compared to other variants.

However, scientists warn that the data is preliminary and based on modeling. But the result depends on the quality and quantity of the data you supply it, Sevic said. “For now, we can’t build a causal relationship. It’s just a related effect,” she said.

At this time, the data accumulated so far are consistent with the understanding that this variant can spread more infectiously or more efficiently, but a real laboratory-based confirmation or reason idea is No Stuart Neil, a professor of virology at King’s College London, said it was spreading faster.

A few weeks ago, the variant was associated with 10% to 15% of cases in a particular area, but last week it surged to about 60% of cases in London, he said, and the data show that the variant Ability to spread more among individuals suggesting that they may have intrinsics.

What do you not understand?

At this point, scientists are most concerned about this variant of spike protein changes. This is the part of the virus that has spokes that allow it to interact with receptors to enter cells in the lungs, throat, and nasal passages. Called ACE-2, Neil said.

Mutations in peplomer proteins may increase the ability of the virus to interact better with ACE-2, resulting in growth benefits, he said. Peplomers, on the other hand, are part of the virus that vaccines are designed to develop antibodies, so this mutation can prevent the vaccine from doing its job.

“It’s something you really need to monitor,” he said.

According to Cevik, the big concern is that it’s still unclear how many factors are driving transmission in recent weeks. This variant may be affecting transmission rates, but high transmission rates have been observed even in tightly restricted areas.

“Sometimes we get back to the unpleasant facts about social inequality. The blockade has a limited impact on people who can’t work from home,” she said.

If there are too many unknowns, do we need to tighten restrictions nationwide?

It’s always difficult to make decisions based on limited data, but experts say it’s important to be careful given what we know about this variant so far. ..

“Trends may be seen, but they may not pan out later. In this current situation, I think … probably premature to say. There are plans for families to get together, especially at Christmas. It was a little difficult not to act on it because it was there, “Sevik said.

Professor Andrew Heyward, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London and a member of the Emergency Science Advisory Group (Sage), said: I feel that it will inevitably require stricter restrictions across the country as we actually move from relatively low levels to very high levels.

“As always, if you want to avoid the maximum number of deaths, you should do your best early.”

He said the stricter restrictions are efforts to reduce infections until as many vulnerable people as possible are protected.

“It will buy us more weeks that we can vaccinate people, and … in my view, it will save tens of thousands of lives.”

If this variant is more contagious, is the current guidance on social distance sufficient?

According to experts, this variant does not have sufficient knowledge to know its impact on existing guidance on social distance and wearing masks.

Catherine Noakes, a professor of environmental engineering for buildings at the University of Leeds and a member of Sage, said: To someone.

“We need to take as many steps as possible to reduce our potential exposure … If we need to interact, it’s really strict to apply the measures we have.”

Given what we know about variants, does the school need to reopen in January?

According to Hayward, the fact that the school isn’t open at this time is a big advantage. “I think one of the questions for me is whether it’s really wise to return to the beginning of January, even if it takes time to plan to bring all the students back to school.

Neil said: “My scientists say that the most effective way to stop a virus from being transmitted is to limit contact with people who can infect the virus. But my other half, In short, parents understand how the impact of closing schools on limiting their child’s development and education can be potentially damaging.

“The last thing I think to consider is closing the school, but I’m going to advocate a much more aggressive and positive test of school staff.”

Do you need to worry?

“I think we already have enough information to know that this variant can cause even greater epidemics-worse than previously predicted,” Hayward said. Even if the per capita mortality rate is exactly the same, we have pointed out an increase in the infection rate. Infection will result in even more deaths.

Noakes said: “We plan to balance the limits in the coming months … until we have enough vaccine coverage to relax a bit.”