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Still unclear about Covid-19 a year later

Still unclear about Covid-19 a year later

 


The speed at which we have learned about the coronavirus is unprecedented, and scientists say we already know an amazing amount.

However, a year later, more than 81 million people reported infection and 1.7 million died. There’s still a lot we don’t know about Covid-19 around the world.

These unknowns range from basic questions such as how the virus started to more complex questions such as how this pandemic ends.

Maureen Ferrand, an associate professor of biology at the Rochester Institute of Technology, said: “This keeps virologists and public health officials busy for decades.”

Origin of coronavirus

When the government competed to find a vaccine for the virus, one of the most basic questions went off the radar of the general public: what is the origin of the virus?

The origin of the virus has been plagued by confusion and conspiracy theories.Initially, the virus appeared to be associated with the Wuhan market selling live animals, but a Lancet study published in January One third Of the early patients, it was not directly related to the market.
Some, including US President Donald Trump, questioned whether the virus was released after being studied or created in Wuhan’s lab. Scientists say There is overwhelming evidence that the virus originated in the wild, and it is said that the closest known relatives of the coronavirus are genetically too different from Covid-19 and should not be leaked. Caused the outbreak.
Research has Evidence found The virus may have been epidemic in the United States and Europe in December 2019, months earlier than originally thought.Chinese national media Pushed the story forward What the virus may have It occurred outside of China.

However, Peter Corignon, a professor of microbiology at the Australian National University, says it is very likely that the virus was prevalent before the first cases occurred in the United States and parts of Europe. Although diagnosed, there is no definitive indication that the virus has originated outside of China. The World Health Organization, which is investigating the origin of the virus, will investigate whether Covid-19 may have been epidemic in China before the first case was identified in December.

Despite too many conspiracy theories, there are some things most scientists agree with. Covid-19 is a coronavirus, a type of virus that causes everything from colds to SARS. It is a zoonotic disease. In other words, it was originally derived from animals. Some studies have pointed to bats as a vector that may be known to carry the coronavirus. And most scientists still believe that the virus infects humans in China because the first case was identified.

However, it is not yet known where the virus first infected humans or whether it was transmitted through other animal vectors such as pangolins or civets before it was transmitted to humans.These are questions we can never answer, says Ferrand-after all, for more than 40 years since Ebola was discovered, scientists have said. could not Be clear about which animal it came from.

Why affect some people more than others

When Covid-19 was first identified, it was considered a respiratory illness. However, over the course of several months, various symptoms and complications of the disease became apparent.

Many people lose their sense of smell.Some people vomit, have diarrhea, or discolor. Finger or toe.. Some people even have cognitive impairment and brain damage.
It has been found that even those who recover from Covid-19 can experience long-term effects such as anxiety, brain injury, and chronic fatigue. A Published studies The British Medical Journal in August found that about 10% of patients had a long-term illness from Covid-19 for more than 12 weeks.
But scientists I don’t know how much These effects from the last Covid-19-and they can’t really explain why one person suffers more than another.

A letter published in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine in November described a case in which two 60-year-old identical twin brothers were both infected with Covid-19. One twin was discharged without complications two weeks later and the other was transferred to the intensive care unit and required mechanical ventilation.

This case shows that researchers have been observing for months. There seems to be near randomness in how seriously the coronavirus affects different people. High risk of severe illness Among other factors, it depends on the existing chronic condition or old age.

“We all have slightly different genetics,” said Corignon. “Often, some people deal with infections better than others, for reasons we don’t fully understand.”

This also applies to demographics as a whole. Scientists have been observing for months a tendency to show that older people and men tend to be more vulnerable.Scientists know something about why children aren’t prone to suffering so serious infections with the coronavirus-they Fewer ACE2 receptors in the nose, And these receptors are the way coronavirus invades our cells. But they can’t really explain why older people have such a high mortality rate from the coronavirus-much higher than the common flu.

“What makes you more susceptible to illness about age?” Corignon asked. “We have the data and we know it is true … but I don’t think we have all the answers to it.”

How to spread coronavirus

In January, China has a virus From person to person.. But even a year later, there is still debate about how that will happen.

Scientists say the main way the virus spreads is through droplets that are sent into the air when someone coughs or sneezes. These droplets fall to the ground after a meter or two, and the mask helps prevent their spread.

However, some scientists claim that the virus is also spread by aerosols. Aerosols are much smaller particles that can travel long distances while floating in the air for hours. That would be a problem, says Corignon-cloth masks cannot protect against aerosol propagation.

Corignon says that while aerosol transmission may be occurring, most infections appear to be caused by droplets.Instead, he thinks he needs to focus more on the effects of indoor airflow-recently. Korean studies The virus droplets found can infect people more than two meters away due to the flow of air from the air conditioning unit.

I have other questions. According to Ferran, the dose of coronavirus required for someone to infect is unknown. Children may be asymptomatic, but there is still no clear answer as to how many children are involved in the spread of the virus.

All of these questions are important because they influence the policy approach taken by the government. If children are involved in the spread of the virus, it makes sense to close the school-conversely, if the children are not involved in the spread of the virus, closing the school is limited. It can have a big impact in return.

How long someone has immunity

In August, researcher A man from the University of Hong Kong said a 33-year-old man was re-infected with Covid-19 4.5 months after he was first infected.

It seemed to confirm that some people were afraid-it could be infected twice.

Fortunately, some people get infected twice, according to Corignon, but “it’s a very rare event to be published in a medical journal.” According to Corignon, about 99% of people infected with the virus have not been infected again for at least 6 months after infection.

So the big question is how long the innate immunity from the virus lasts. Scientists still can’t answer because the virus hasn’t been with us long enough.

The same is true for vaccines-I don’t know how long the immunity to it will last.

Scientists had assumed that the vaccine would provide some form of immunity over the years, Corignon said. “But the bottom line is that we still don’t know.”

At this time, the coronavirus vaccine appears to be more effective than the flu vaccine, which needs to be given annually.

Scientists are optimistic about the vaccine and believe that long-term side effects are unlikely. Jonathan Stoye of the Francis Crick Institute in London said: “I think the risk of the virus is much greater than that of the vaccine.”

But that doesn’t mean that there are still no questions about vaccines beyond how long immunity lasts. I don’t know if the virus will mutate, By disabling the vaccine. The longer it takes to vaccinate a large area of ​​the population, the more chances of mutation, Ferran said. In addition, some new vaccines employ mRNA technology that has never been widely used. Questions have been raised as to whether immunity with these vaccines lasts for the same period as traditional vaccines.

When the pandemic is over

All of these questions affect the big questions. When will this end?

Many people around the world have high hopes for vaccines, but it’s still not an easy solution. It will take years to vaccinate most of the world’s population-something needed to stop the spread-and pollsters say that some people may not be vaccinated Is shown. Even if people do so, vaccines are not a silver bullet.

“I think the vaccine is the way to go, but people seem to think it will give me 100% protection. Vaccines don’t do that,” Corignon said. And even if someone is vaccinated, scientists still don’t know if they can get the virus and spread it, even if they don’t get sick themselves.

Even if vaccination is widespread, you may need to live with the virus.After all, the only virus in human history has been declared eradicated. Vaccine-Smallpox.

There are other issues that can affect the lifespan of a coronavirus, such as whether the coronavirus mutates or develops a new strain. It can reduce the lethality and infectivity of the virus, but it can also increase the virulence of the virus. That possibility is highlighted by a recent UK announcement that it has identified a new strain of coronavirus that appears to be 70% more infectious than the old strain.

In the meantime, you will have to resort to various other measures. Stoye of the Francis Crick Institute says this is likely to mean a combination of different protections. “I can’t say. We do one thing to prevent the spread of the virus.”

Here you will be asked all the questions about how the virus spreads and how different people are affected. These are important not only for dealing with current outbreaks, but also for future outbreaks.

The problem, Corignon says, is that not enough money is being spent to answer the basics.

“We spend billions of dollars on vaccines and drugs, but we can’t get the money to do some basic research, such as how effective this mask is for that mask.” He said. The problem goes away-they just reduced the risk.

Stoye said he was concerned that he could not yet find the right way to deal with the pandemic.

“That’s what I’m worried about when talking about future epidemics. Have you learned enough to prevent another epidemic?”

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