Earthquakes and Tsunamis – How Do You Stack 2020? – Times Criterion

Whatever you look at it, 2020 will stand out as a tough year. In the year the pandemic has gripped the bills and wildfires, the economy and political struggle grappled with the following positions. And it was the year earthquakes and tsunamis seldom occupied the front page. There were fewer large or fatal earthquakes in 2020 than any year in the past two decades. At least 205 people were killed by an earthquake-related earthquake in 2020, the lowest number since 1984 and the same number of Los Angeles County residents who died from the coronavirus on Friday.

“No catastrophic earthquakes” is good news, and even without a major loss it is worth looking back at the year to see what I learned and what surprised me.

The July 22 M7.8 earthquake in the southern Alaska Peninsula was the largest earthquake this year. It was located about 60 miles from the nearest city as the distance suppressed the force of the vibration to a moderate level. Roughly 7.8 and 7.6 on Oct.19 is interesting from a tectonic perspective. It was centered in the Shomagin Gap, an area of ​​the Aleutians that had not experienced a major earthquake in the past century and has been identified by some seismologists as a possible source for the next great Alaska earthquake. The 2020 earthquakes did not completely fill the gap and were complex.

The July earthquake was a powerful event likely on or near the façade of the subduction zone, but it caused a very small tsunami. The October earthquake was a zip earthquake directed perpendicular to the main earthquake. It produced a modest tsunami that was larger than the largest earthquake. I’m still scratching my head about it. Some seismologists now speculate that Shumagin Gap is a transition zone in Aleuts and may not produce M9s. Only time will determine if it is correct.

In terms of energy launches, the 2020 total has been lower than last year, having captured the bottom hatch over the past two decades of 2019. In my 2019 summary column, I used Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear test in the Soviet Union ever conducted, describing the launch Seismic energy. Kaiser Bomba, an aerial test in 1961, fired 50 megatons. Total seismic energy production in 2020 was about six-tenths of the Tsar bomb, down about 11% from last year. Earthquakes are quite capable of outpacing Caesar’s output. A seismic release in 2011 was equivalent to about 14 Caesar bombs.

Most tsunamis are caused by large earthquakes, so it is not surprising that the planet has seen fewer and smaller tsunamis this year. Only one tsunami caused damage and one death. The October 30 earthquake triggered an M7 in the Aegean Sea and reached a height of just over six feet. There is a cautionary tale in this tsunami. Magnitude 7 is not a very large earthquake from a tsunami perspective, yet this earthquake produced water levels higher than two much larger earthquakes in Alaska. The tsunami of October 30 appears to have been amplified due to the shape of the Turkish sea floor and coast. Affected communities were less than 20 miles from the epicenter and the earthquake was felt by everyone. The tsunami took only 10 to 15 minutes to arrive. It’s another cautionary tale that when you feel an earthquake, you should always think of a tsunami and head to higher ground ASAP.

The Aegean earthquake on 30 October was also the deadliest of 2020. In addition to the death of the tsunami, 118 people were killed by the damage caused by the tremor. I have written about the complex tectonic environment and seismic vulnerabilities of the region before (“Complications in plate boundaries,” Times-Standard, November 8, 2020, page A2). Not surprisingly, a number of the structures affected were unreinforced stone, which are brick buildings that were built decades to centuries ago. But post-earthquake surveys revealed that some collapsed structures were built in the 1990s after a long period of earthquake-proof design was needed in Turkey. A report by the Seismological Research Center in Izmir cites inconsistent construction and poor law enforcement as the culprits. Another reminder that earthquake engineering design is only as good as it gets put into practice.

While the level of global activity was below the last average in 2020, American activity increased in each of the 48 neighboring states and in Alaska. Nearly 3,000 earthquakes of magnitude 3 or greater have been recorded in Alaska and the Aleutian Islands, about 1,000 earthquakes of magnitude greater than average over the past two decades. The reason is not surprising – the July 22nd M7.8 and its strong relay. Fortunately, earthquake activity was concentrated in sparsely populated areas.

Nearly 1,500 earthquakes of magnitude 3 or greater were recorded in the lower 48 states, just below last year and about 50% above average over the past two decades. 2019 was high due to Ridgecrest M7.1 and aftershocks. 2020 saw increased activity in the western US: M6.5s in Central Idaho and Western Nevada, 5s in Utah, Central California and Texas. Aftershocks are still being recorded from many of these earthquakes as well as from the Ridgecrest earthquake. To date, activity has been concentrated away from populated areas and its impacts are relatively modest.

There were earthquake deaths in the United States in 2020, but not Alaska or less than 48. 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or greater occurred along the coast and close to the southwest coast of Puerto Rico. The sequence began on December 28, 2019 with 4.7, and over the next 10 months produced 118 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or greater, including 6.4 on January 7, 2020, and 14 earthquakes in the M5 range. Four deaths and nine injuries were attributed to 6.4 aftershocks and last January.

I am guilty of ignoring Puerto Rico in my annual summaries, but it is the second most seismically active region in the United States (after Alaska), with five times as many earthquakes each year on average as California. Like California, it is located in a complex tectonic environment with a shift plate boundary and a major subduction zone close by. I resolve to give more attention in 2021.

What does all this mean for earthquake activity in 2021? We will have earthquakes in the coming months. Just because 2020 has been relatively calm doesn’t mean that there will be more (or fewer) earthquakes this year. There will be surprises and I hope the impacts continue to decline. But the only way to reduce impacts is to build resilient communities, invest in science and engineering, enforce building codes, Drop Cover and Hold On when the ground shocks, and be sure to head to higher ground if you’re on the coast. I’m fond of saying that we are one day closer to the next great earthquake today than we were yesterday.

Note: Primary source for earthquake information (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/), tsunami information (https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml). Impact information from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2020.

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