How big was commuters in spreading the coronavirus in Louisiana? | Coronavirus

Baton Rouge and Acadiana continue to be hit hard by the spread of community novels CoronavirusBut, Louisiana will be spared the most severe infection rates New Orleans experienced in March, because an analysis of commuter figures is that people are home from work.

The most intense hotspot of confirmed cases of often fatal COVID-19 began in New Orleans and spread along the commuter route to suburbs of the city. According to a comparison with the Louisiana Department of Health’s report, the daily hotspot moved to Jefferson and St. Thammarney, and then to St. John the Baptist and St. Charles Parish. Counts collected The American Association of United States Highways and Transportation Authorities, and the US Census Bureau. The program is a planning tool designed to show the flow of travel between home and work.

Commuters report that much more parishes are working in Baton Rouge than in New Orleans.

According to commuter statistics, the virus should have flourished throughout the state from Baton Rouge, but about the governor’s “ order at home ” issued after seeing what was happening in the New Orleans metro area. Dr. Catherine O’Neal is an infectious disease at the LSU School of Medicine and is Chief Medical Officer of the Lake Our Lady of Lake Regional Medical Center in Baton Rouge.

“If not properly protected, if the level of positives in New Orleans was low (which would not have alerted authorities), the cat would have been out of the bag,” O-Neal said . “We don’t seem to be a good place … but” we’re there “slows down not only Baton Rouge, but also Bunkie, Eunice and Villepratt. “

“We’re looking at the entire state,” Governor John Bell Edwards told reporters on Friday pointing out that improvements were seen in the New Orleans area. “We want to make sure everyone is heading in the right direction …. Some parts of the state are behind others.”

However, the metropolitan area is growing at a “less vigilant” rate than New Orleans.

The outbreak of coronavirus was first recognized in Wuhan, China, in December. On January 30, the outbreak of the coronavirus was considered an international public health emergency and was recognized as a pandemic by March 11.

The virus spreads easily and moves through the air as small droplets when the infected person breathes, talks, coughs, and sneezes. As a result, all precautionary measures were taken, including frequent hand washing, “evacuation center” directives and restrictions on groups of 10 or more.

The first positive test in Louisiana was on March 9 in New Orleans. The disease epidemic increased exponentially, and Edwards closed the casino and shut down school. Edwards has joined many states since March 23 by ordering everyone except mandatory laborers to stay home.

However, according to AASHTO / Census Bureau statistics, 93,086 people commuted to New Orleans for work during the two weeks, almost all of which came from eight parishes and two Mississippi counties. Of that number, 54,438 drove into the city from the Jefferson Parish and another 14,221 worked across the interstate 10 twin spans and the Causeway Bridge from St. Thammanie.

The number of people who tested positive for coronavirus infection in the Orleans parish increased to 95 on March 17 and 827 a week later. New Orleans killed 235 people on Sunday and recorded 5,600 cases.

More tests became available during the period, but at the same time, the color-coded maps used by the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would increase the concentration of COVID-19 cases identified in suburban communities A dark growing blue circle was shown, along I-10.

The number of Jefferson parishes surged from 7 March 14 to 90 March 20, with 744 positive cases a week later. Jefferson had 4,990 confirmed cases on Sunday, while St. Thammary, whose number increased over the same period, had 864 cases on Sunday.

St. John Parish, located just across the hood from the Jefferson Parish and the Bones Calle Pilway, the number began to increase dramatically about four days after March 24. On Friday, the parish had the highest per capita mortality in the United States.

The East Baton Rouge Parish has proceeded from confirming one case on March 18 to 105 cases on March 26. As of Sunday, 25 days after the initial discovery, East Baton Rouge had 1,223 cases.

About twice as many drivers as New Orleans commute from 276 locales and work in Baton Rouge. Another 23,009 Baton Rouge residents have gone to work in 39 other parishes. Suburban communities, especially the parishes of Ascension, show high rates, but not as fast as New Orleans suburbs.

Approximately 2,300 drivers travel between Baton Rouge and Lafayette, the largest commuter flow between the two cities in Louisiana, and about 1,500 workers work in Baton Rouge and New Orleans. Move between

The number of coronavirus cases identified in Louisiana increased by 1,187 at night, including 41 more and one death in Lafayette…

Commuting statistics are not part of the predictive modeling used by Louisiana.

Governor modeling generally predicts the peak number of cases in various scenarios (for example, when schools and workplaces are closed) and compares those predictions to available hospital beds and equipment. The purpose is.

The government uses statistical analysis system software. The software starts with a healthcare professional calculating the number of people who will be infected by a single illness in various scenarios. Software typically captures various statistics and runs analytic algorithms that can predict the various results that executives analyze.

The state also uses R software, which makes it easy to convert numbers to graphs.

Edwards said last week that the proper evacuation orders in Louisiana reduced the number of people infected from one to three to four in mathematical terms to less than two.

Aly Neel, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Health, said commuting information was not built into Louisiana models, but such respected models were created by Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Officials have said. The state is “looking forward to partnering soon” with Johns Hopkins, she said.

“While we do not specifically collect or track the spread of commuters, (the Ministry of Health) and the governor repeatedly believe that COVID-19 is present in all parishes in the state. We expanded the “at home” order because we are concerned about spreads, “said Neil.