The United States follows Europe with the previous surge of covid-19. Will it happen again?

European countries implementing new blockades in the resurgence of infectious diseases have each been on the rise after ignoring known mitigation strategies, said Dr. Rochelle Warrensky of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Said it was a warning sign.

France imposed a one-month blockade on Friday in Paris and elsewhere in the country. Italy implemented new restrictions earlier this week.

Dr. Anthony Fauci said this week that the United States generally followed the European Union for weeks in the dynamics of its outbreak. In a conversation with The Wall Street Journal, he said in Europe that cases had diminished and stagnated, after which countries withdrew mitigation measures and cases recovered.

“They are in the process of rebounding, which we absolutely want to avoid,” said Dr. Forch. He added that withdrawing everything is dangerous given the current level of community infections in the United States. Preventive modality.

A Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University shows that in 25 states, the average number of new cases in the last 7 days is higher than the average number in the last 14 days. It shows that it is increasing. These states include Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut. The number of states heading in this direction has been seen in the past few weeks, up from just five states a month ago.

Jonathan Glad, an assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard School of Public Health, said the United States occurs in many regions and the patterns of states governed by community decisions regarding interventions and vaccinations are different. It was.

“I don’t know it makes sense to compare the entire United States to what’s happening elsewhere,” Dr. Glad said.

Dr. Glad said he was concerned about an increase in infections if the number of cases and hospitalizations increased in bars, restaurants and other places where activities were resumed after deregulation. He added that the numbers are expected to continue to grow in those places.

According to data tracked by the University of Michigan, the positive rate of cases has increased in Michigan for more than three weeks, with all regions stagnant or rising. According to the CDC, a highly infectious coronavirus variant known as B.1.1.7, first identified in the United Kingdom, is widespread in the state, causing 616 cases.

Emily Toss Martin, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health, said initially that the post-holiday decline in new Covid-19 cases in Michigan continued to steadily slow down and then begin to rise. ..

According to Dr. Martin, the number of cases in the younger age group under 50 is increasing, with reports of clusters of cases occurring around school-related activities outside the classroom.

Dr. Martin said he is working with a team to sequence the genome of Covid-19 cases. She said she is testing variants in known clusters in Michigan rather than random sampling in the community.

“It looks like there are a lot of problems when compared to randomly sampling across the community. In reality, we’re just looking for it in a more directional way,” said Dr. Martin. I will.

According to Dr. Martin, British variants are not the main lineage that travels within the community. Instead, the increase in the number of cases is driven by behavioral changes, more mobility, and more openness.

She said it would lead to fluctuations in the number of cases, especially since the number of people vaccinated in the community is not very high. According to a journal analysis of CDC data, about 22% of residents are given at least one shot.

“We’ve gone a little over skiing. We’re enthusiastic about re-engagement, we’re resuming things and we’re starting to get together again, but in reality no one is involved in those activities. Is protected or immune. “

Overall, the Covid-19 positive rate continues to decline in the United States, with a 7-day average of 4.1%. According to CDC data, Covid-19 cases per capita are highest in the 18-24 year old group, followed by 25-34 year olds.

A possible plateau occurs when vaccination campaigns in the United States, which are considered the key to ending a pandemic, are accelerating. Last week, the country passed the milestone of 100 million doses of vaccination. And on Friday, the United States achieved President Biden’s goal of providing 100 million doses of vaccine during his first 100 days in office, weeks earlier than planned. Currently, the average pace of vaccination is 2.5 million times a day. Almost 12% of the US population is vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins data.

By comparison, according to Johns Hopkins, 3.68% of Italians, 3.64% of Germans, 3.37% of French and 2.65% of British residents are vaccinated. EU vaccination efforts are hampered by low doses and may only be given to a small proportion of the general public by the end of summer, but the epidemic of highly contagious coronavirus variants is regional. It is accelerating as a whole.

According to CDC data, the majority of fully vaccinated Americans are over 50 years old.

However, the U.S.’s choice to prioritize a limited number of vaccines for the elderly and vulnerable adults at high risk of serious complications and death from Covid-19 probably moved within the community. Those who are likely to be vaccinated later, according to both Dr. Martens and Dr. Glad.

“If your goal is to reduce mortality, it makes sense to focus on vaccination of those who are at greatest risk of dying if infected,” Dr. Glad said. Risk of infection to reduce cases, to reduce mortality. “

This story was published from a news agency feed without changing the text.