Health
Graph showing actual UK coronavirus mortality is much higher than initially feared
The spike was “incredibly vivid,” said Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge.
“I don’t think I was shocked when I saw something, especially since more than half of the spikes were death certificates written by Covid,” he said.
“We knew there would be more deaths from Covid registrations, and we didn’t expect more deaths than the death certificate says.”
Unexplained deaths may be related to Covid-19, but have not yet been detected, such as deaths in nursing homes or unrelated illnesses, where many residents die before seeing a doctor. Hmm.
Care england data More recently, it has been suggested that as many as 7,500 people in care homes may have died of coronavirus.
Similar scenarios are deployed in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
More recent data is available because death registration is a faster process in Scotland. And more over-death is beginning to be associated with Covid-19.
At week 14, coronavirus deaths represented approximately 46% of all excess deaths. By the 15th week it was almost 70% and by the 16th week it was 77%.
The latest data from England and Wales also show that the rate of excess mortality due to Covid is increasing. It was 69% for one week until April 3. It was 81% for one week until April 10.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter said the inclusion of Covid-19 in the death certificate could help doctors become more confident.
“There is a clear and statistically significant number of over-deaths that do not get Covid in the death certificate,” he said.
“Perhaps we may have older people who do not have the classic Covid symptoms, but even mild illness is enough to yield.
“Probably the doctor didn’t feel enough to be convinced that the condition was Covid. This may be because the doctor became more confident in listing Covid’s allegations on his death certificate. Hmm.
“ Another worrying factor is the death rate of people who don’t actually get Covid, but they don’t go to hospital because of their underlying condition, they don’t want to burden the hospital, or they are at risk. It’s a nice place. “
“There are many other possible causes of death,” said Den Denning, a professor of dementia research at Nottingham University. This includes not being able to attend GP surgery, not calling ambulances, and not being able to attend A & E. Therefore, some serious conditions may be too late for effective treatment. ”
“Another possibility is that some people with serious conditions, such as cancer or chronic kidney disease, are unable or unwilling to attend a regular regular hospital May fail. “
It has been attended by A & E since the beginning of the outbreak, It has fallen to the lowest level since modern records began.
More confirmed cases
As the number of excess deaths increases, the number of confirmed deaths directly related to Covid-19 continues to increase each week.
According to the latest data, deaths in England and Wales where coronaviruses were listed on death certificates were more than 40% higher than those in hospitals.
According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), there were more than 60,000 deaths Including Covid-19 It took place in England and Wales between the beginning of the year and April 10, compared to 9,288 as reported by the Department of Health.
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