UK plans to deal with pandemic causing up to 315,000 deaths | News from the world

Emergency planners have developed proposals to deal with excessive deaths between 210,000 and 315,000 people over a period of 15 weeks as part of longstanding measures to ensure that the UK can cope a deadly pandemic.

The worst reasonable scenario was established over ten years ago and is still part of the underlying planning, supporting the coronavirus action plan announced by Boris Johnson at a meeting. Cobra emergency Monday.

Politicians and officials have been hesitant to speculate on the number of people likely to be at risk if the coronavirus spread to large numbers of the British population, but health officials have pointed out hypothetical documents more unfavorable.

Excessive deaths at this level would amount to around 0.4% to 0.5% of the UK population and are based in part on a 2.5% death rate, although this week Chris Whitty, Chief Physician of England, said he expected a mortality rate no higher than 1%.

The numbers are appearing in a special document for 2013 emergency planners, which states that the government deems one of the highest current risks for the UK to be the possible emergence of a considered influenza pandemic for a long time as a more deadly national risk than terrorism or a catastrophe.

Crisis planners across the country should have liaised with everyone in what are called coroners of the death management process, funeral directors, morgue directors and the authorities. burial and cremation to make sure they have plans to deal with a pandemic.

A wide range of services are expected to cope with a coronavirus emergency, although emergency planning is a local council activity and questions arise as to how it has been funded over the years. 39; austerity, with 15 billion cuts in municipal services since 2010.

Mike Granatt, former head of the Civil Emergency Secretariat, said the confused and slow initial response to the Grenfell disaster in 2017 demonstrated that emergency plans have certainly taken a hit in the past decade.

Despite the challenges, emergency planners insist that they are ready. Jacqui Semple, President of the Emergency Planning Society, said: All public sector services have been cut due to austerity and this includes emergency planning.

Semple added: What this doesn't mean is that the work in progress has not been done. She argued that everyone in the emergency services industry, from the NHS to the police, would say the same thing. We could always make more money, she added.

The document also makes it clear that schools may have to close as a precaution, although this is not current official advice, and states that all organizations would face a high level of illness if a flu-like illness like the coronavirus was widespread. Illness rates could reach 20%, reaching 35% in small organizations, at a climax.

Emergency planners report in the Cobra system, which is used by ministers and officials to consolidate information and make decisions in times of crisis. Johnson chaired a committee meeting on Monday for the first time since reports of the disease emerged from China in January.

That authorized a 28-page action plan, focused on controlling the spread of the disease, but Whitty admitted on Thursday that the government was heading for a phase of delay, which occurs when officials believe that 39; an epidemic becomes inevitable.

Experts wondered if the political machine was responding quickly enough to the coronavirus crisis. Bob Kerslake, former head of the public service, said the dilemma for Downing Street was that by the time the need to close schools or stop public gatherings to disrupt the spread of the disease became evident , it could easily be too late because the virus has spread too far.

The crossbencher warned that if the ministers believe that emergency measures will be necessary, they should act now. Lord Kerslake added: Their problem is that when we know for sure the severity of the coronavirus epidemic, it will be too late because such measures will not be able to stop its transmission.

What is Covid-19 – the disease that started in Wuhan?

It is caused by a member of the coronavirus family who has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it comes from animals. Many of those originally infected worked or often shop at the wholesale seafood market in Huanan, in the center of Chinese city.

Have there been other coronaviruses?

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers) are both caused by coronaviruses from animals. In 2002, Sars spread virtually uncontrolled to 37 countries, causing worldwide panic, infecting more than 8,000 people and killing more than 750 people. Seas appears to be less easily transmitted from human to human, but has greater lethality, killing 35% of the approximately 2,500 people who have been infected.

What are the symptoms of the new coronavirus?

The virus can cause pneumonia. Those who fell ill would suffer from coughs, fever and difficulty breathing. In severe cases, there may be organic failure. Since this is a viral pneumonia, antibiotics are unnecessary. The antiviral drugs we have for the flu will not work. Recovery depends on the strength of the immune system. Many of those who died were already in poor health.

Should I go to the doctor if I cough?

British Chief Physicians advise anyone who has traveled to the UK from mainland China, Thailand, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau in the past 14 days and who suffers from cough, fever or shortness of breath breath to stay indoors and call NHS 111, even if symptoms are mild.

Is the virus transmitted from one person to another?

The National Health Commission of China has confirmed human-to-human transmission, and there have been such transmissions elsewhere.

How many people have been affected?

As of March 4, the death toll worldwide has been 3,190, while more than 93,000 people have been infected in more than 80 countries.

The death toll rose to 3,000 in China, where there have been more than 80,000 cases. South Korea, the country hardest hit by the epidemic outside of China, recorded 5,328 cases. Over 44,000 people in China have recovered from Covid-19.

There have been 87 recorded cases and no deaths to date in the UK. There are 53 confirmed cases in Australia, with two deaths.

Why is it worse than normal flu and how worried are the experts?

We don't yet know how dangerous the new coronavirus is, and we won't know until the data is entered. The death rate is around 2% at the center of the epidemic, in Hubei Province, and less than elsewhere. For comparison, seasonal flu usually has a mortality rate of less than 1% and is thought to be the cause of around 400,000 dead every year around the world. Sars had a death rate of over 10%.

Another unknown key is the contagiousness of the coronavirus. A crucial difference is that, unlike the flu, there is no vaccine against the new coronavirus, which means that it is more difficult for vulnerable members of the population, the elderly or those having respiratory or immune problems, to protect themselves. It is important to wash your hands and avoid other people if you feel unwell. A wise step is to get the flu shot, which will reduce the burden on health services if the epidemic turns into a larger epidemic.

Is the epidemic a pandemic?

A pandemic, according to the WHO, is the global spread of a disease. Coronavirus cases have been confirmed outside of China, but in no case in the 195 countries on the WHO list. Nor does it currently spread in these countries, except in very rare cases. The majority of cases are by far travelers who have caught the virus in China.

Should we panic?

No. The spread of the virus outside of China is worrying but not an unexpected development. WHO has declared the epidemic to be a public health emergency of international concern. The key questions are how is this new coronavirus transmitted between people and what proportion becomes seriously ill and ends up in the hospital. Often, viruses that spread easily have a lighter impact. Generally, the coronavirus seems to strike the elderly harder, with few cases in children.

Sarah Boseley, Hannah Devlin and Martin Belam

A small number of schools were closed when cases were detected, while a nervous audience bought hand sanitizers, soap and dry foods such as pasta and rice in supermarkets .

Critics also say the government is struggling with communications, having just canceled the post-election boycott of the BBC Radio 4 Today program. On Wednesday, he decided that he would not publish a regional breakdown of coronavirus cases but had to turn around after objections that the public was denied transparency.

Granatt, also a former head of government information, said the imperative was to build and build trust every day, and argued that the previous boycott was exactly the worst thing to do, especially because the elderly, who are among those most at risk, instinctively turn to trusted broadcasters and newspapers, and in particular the BBC.

Cobra stands for Cabinet Office briefing room A, but in reality it describes a system to manage any national crisis. In fact, key meetings tend to take place in Room F, the largest, which is attended by around 20 people, surrounded by presentation screens or remote participants. Sometimes gallows humor can take hold, even in the worst situations, as happened at a meeting on Friday last week, where other participants noted with irony that Whitty, the oldest doctor in England, appeared to have a cold.