- Demand greater than supply in the second half of the year
- US crude inventories rise but continue to fall in Cushing – EIA
- Brent seen halfway up – $ 70 for the rest of the year -Morgan Stanley
NEW YORK, July 22 (Reuters) – Oil prices rose more than a dollar a barrel on Thursday, extending gains made in previous sessions on tight supply expectations through 2021 as economies recover of the coronavirus crisis.
Brent crude rose $ 1.26, or 1.7%, to $ 73.49 a barrel at 1:44 p.m. EDT (1744 GMT), after rising 4.2% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $ 1.27, or 1.8%, to $ 71.57 a barrel, after rising 4.6% on Wednesday.
“The death of demand has been greatly exaggerated,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “The demand is not going to go away, so we are coming back to a very tight market.”
Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia, collectively known as OPEC +, agreed this week on a deal to increase oil supplies from 400,000 barrels per day from August to December to cool prices and meet growing demand.
But with demand still to exceed supply in the second half of the year, Morgan Stanley forecast global benchmark Brent to trade between $ 70 and $ 70 a barrel for the remainder of 2021.
“Ultimately, the recovery in global GDP (gross domestic product) is likely to remain on track, inventory data continues to be encouraging, our balances show tensions in the second half of the year and we expect the recovery to be on track. ‘OPEC remains cohesive,’ he said.
Russia could begin the process of banning gasoline exports next week if fuel prices on national stock exchanges remain at current levels, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said, further signaling a tightening of supplies of gasoline. oil to come.
Crude inventories in the United States, the world’s largest consumer of oil, unexpectedly rose 2.1 million barrels last week to 439.7 million barrels, up for the first time since May, according to the reports. US Energy Information Administration data.
Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma crude storage facility and the WTI delivery point, however, have fallen for six consecutive weeks and are at their lowest level since January 2020 last week.
Demand for gasoline and diesel, according to EIA figures, also jumped last week.
Barclays analysts also expected a faster-than-expected reduction in global oil inventories to pre-pandemic levels, prompting the bank to raise its 2021 oil price forecast from $ 3 to $ 5 for an average of $ 69 per barrel.
“Despite the extreme risks, the dynamics of supply and demand point to a slow increase in prices over the next few months,” Barclays said in a report.
Additional reporting by Ron Bousso in London and Jessica Jaganathan in Singapore Editing by Marguerita Choy and Kirsten Donovan
Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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