The global energy crisis has rekindled demand for oil, threatening global climate ambitions and the global economic recovery from Covid-19, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The global energy watchdog has warned that the shortage of gas and coal in the world’s major economies, which has caused energy markets to explode, could trigger a faster-than-expected oil market rebound and push demand above pre-pandemic levels as early as next year.
The Paris-based agency warned it would increase costs for energy-intensive industries, which, along with power outages, could lead to a drop in industrial activity and a slowdown in the global economic recovery from the Covid pandemic. 19.
Record coal and gas prices along with power outages are prompting the power sector and energy-intensive industries to turn to oil to keep lights on and operations buzzing, IEA said .
In China, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which reflects the prices factories charge wholesalers for their products, rose 10.7% in September from the same month last year. Inflation at Chinese factories is at its highest level in 26 years after a rise in world commodity prices that lasted for several months.
The world’s second-largest economy has suffered a double blow with soaring commodity prices and power outages in at least 20 of China’s 31 provinces. The country entered a shock economic downturn last month amid reduced electricity consumption and rising commodity and parts prices, which resulted in lower production.
The IEA said rising energy prices had added inflationary pressures which, along with blackouts, could lead to a decline in industrial activity and a slowdown in economic recovery.
The recent surge in demand for oil, up half a million barrels per day from normal, has pushed market prices up by more than a quarter in the past eight weeks, worsening the impact of record gas and coal prices on world markets. The price of Brent crude hit nearly $ 85 a barrel, the highest price in the past three years.
Energy prices are expected to continue to rise, according to the IEA. He predicted that demand for oil would exceed market supply by 700,000 barrels of oil per day for the remainder of the year, suggesting market prices rise in the coming weeks. Goldman Sachs, a major oil trader, has raised its oil price forecast to $ 90 per barrel for this year.
Earlier this week, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that a sharp increase in demand for oil and coal could mean the second highest increase in CO2 emissions in history because governments failed to seize the opportunity for a green recovery from the pandemic.
The agency now expects global oil demand to increase by 5.5 million barrels per day this year, and 3.3 MB / d in 2022, when it is expected to rise slightly above pre-Covid levels to reach 99.6 million barrels of oil per day, according to its latest market report.
We are seeing an unsustainable resumption of the pandemic, he said, and called on governments to come together and send a political message to the world that we are determined to have a clean energy future.
Birol also called recent claims that the energy price crisis was in part caused by efforts to make the transition inaccurate and misleading. He said that in a clean energy world, the shocks resulting from the doubling of oil and gas prices will be much less felt by consumers.
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