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Mortgage and refinancing rates today, October 27 | Falling rates




Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates edged down yesterday. This brought them below the six-month highs they were at in the last two working days. But, of course, these rates currently remain extraordinarily low compared to those before the pandemic.

And we may have more good news. Because mortgage rates are expected to drop again today. But, as always, that could change as the day goes on.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (October 27, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

ProgramMortgage rateAPR*Switch
Conventional 30 years fixed3,252%3.272%-0.03%
Conventional 15 years fixed2,612%2.642%-0.01%
Conventional 20 years fixed3.042%3.075%-0.02%
Conventional 10 years fixed2,542%2,605%-0.02%
30-year fixed FHA3.285%4,047%-0.04%
15 years fixed FHA2,579%3.223%-0.02%
5/1 ARM FHA2.73%3.225%-0.03%
Fixed VA over 30 years3.071%3.264%-0.07%
VA fixed 15 years2,763%3.113%-0.11%
5/1 ARM VA2.606%2.463%+ 0.02%
Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

I still believe that mortgage rates are much more likely, overall, to go up than to fall over the next few weeks.

My personal rate foreclosure recommendations therefore remain:

  • LOCK if closing 7 days
  • LOCK if closing 15 days
  • LOCK if closing 30 days
  • LOCK if closing 45 days
  • LOCK if closing 60 days

Market data affecting current mortgage rates

Here’s a look at the state of play this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was as follows:

  • The 10-year Treasury bill yield fell to 1.56% from 1.63%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular yields of Treasury bonds.
  • Main stock market indices were mixed after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and increases yields and mortgage rates. The reverse can happen when the indices are lower. But it’s an imperfect relationship
  • Oil price climbed to $ 83.59 from $ 83.41 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play an important role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
  • Gold price slightly higher at $ 1,798 versus $ 1,795 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
  • CNN Corporate Fear and Greed Index fell to 69 from 74 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) Greedy investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they exit the bond market and head into stocks, while fearful investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Warnings about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are generally right. But our accuracy record won’t hit its former high levels until things calm down.

So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to lean on them. But, with this caveat, mortgage rates now seem likely to fall. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (October 27, 2021)

Important Notes on Current Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About Them
  2. Only “top” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves, although they generally all follow the larger trend over time.
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
  5. Refinancing rates are generally close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?

Today and soon

The three main drivers of rising mortgage rates remain in place. For more information on this, read last Saturday’s weekend edition of these Daily Reports.

Mortgage rates and other markets

We use five main sources of market data (above) to try to predict daily mortgage rates. But some are more reliable guides than others.

The yields on 10-year treasury bills are a pretty good indicator. This is because they are in direct competition with Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), the type of bond that largely determines mortgage rates. So when investors buy or sell one type of these bonds, they often do the same transaction for the other. MBS offers a better yield (yield), but they are considered less secure than US Treasury securities.

Demand for bonds tends to depend on investor confidence. When markets are confident about the economic future, they tend to invest more in stocks. This is because bonds, while less risky, generally produce a lower return.

But when investors worry about the economy, they often turn to bonds. Because, in these circumstances, they prioritize security over earnings. They want to protect their capital from risk.

That’s why we look at the stock markets, gold prices, and the CNN Business Fear and Greed Index when we assess the direction of mortgage rates. But the relationships between these rates and these measures (plus oil prices) are much less direct than those between rates and 10-year Treasury yields.

And reading them all is as much an art as it is a science.


Through much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new all-time low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with extended periods of ups and downs. Unfortunately, since September, the increases have intensified.

Freddie 21st of October report puts this weekly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages at 3.09% (with 0.7 fees and points), up from previous weeks 3.05%.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

In the longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, the real estate sector and mortgage rates. .

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).

The figures in the table below are for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s and Freddie’s were released on October 15 and the MBAs on October 18.

ForecasterT4 / 21T1 / 22T2 / 22Q3 / 22
Fannie Mae3.1%3.2% 3.2%3.3%
Freddie mac3.2%3.4% 3.5%3.6%
MBA3.1%3.3% 3.5%3.7%

However, given so many unknowables, the entire current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.

All of these forecasts call for at least slightly higher mortgage rates soon enough.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to the more vanilla mortgages and refinances.

But others remain courageous. And you can still probably find the cash refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. Just shop more widely.

But, of course, you should be doing a lot of comparison regardless of what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said:

Shopping around for your mortgage can save you money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Check your new rate (October 27, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage Reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.




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