Although Nifty-50’s second quarter (Q2 FY22) profits were above expectations, mainly thanks to commodities, metals, oil and gas, logistics, retail, pharmaceuticals and real estate are wear well. Among Nifty-50, 21 companies exceeded analysts’ estimates, while eight companies did not. Going forward, analysts expect corporate profits to double from the FY20-24 levels of 464 in FY20 and 518 in FY21; at 706 in FY22; 839 in FY23; and 958 in FY24. This expectation of doubling earnings in just four years (compared to earlier single-digit EPS growth) is expected to keep valuation high despite a likely rate hike in 2022, a report from Antique Stock Broking said. As a result, the brokerage expects Nifty 50 to reach 20,100 by March 2023, based on a 21x FY24 EPS of 958.
Management comments on second quarter earnings indicate the demand outlook remains despite the price hikes. However, the ability of companies to fully pass on inflation costs is a concern, particularly in the automotive and consumer goods sectors. However, foreign brokerage firm Jefferies estimates that corporate profit growth, which has been lackluster in the FY11-FY20 period, with a paltry 0.4% CAGR, will improve with FY20- profit growth. 51% CAGR FY22.
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