Business
Covid Model of Stock Markets: Faster Recovery From Every Panic
Time for the S&P 500 to return to peak levels
after the declines linked to the pandemic
Percentage changes in the
S&P 500 during each period
NOV.-DEC. ’21
2 WEEKS, 4 DAYS,
UNTIL THERE
(CALENDAR DAYS)
Delta spreads
as worries grow
on inflation
SEPT.-OCT. ’21
7 WEEKS
TO RECOVER
Death and
restrictions
increase in the middle
electoral cycle
SEPT.-NOV. ’20
10 WEEKS, 2 DAYS
Covid-19
throw it
world in
chaos
FEB-AUG. ’20
25 WEEKS, 6 DAYS
Length of time for S&P 500 to regain peak levels after pandemic declines
Covid-19
throws
the world
in chaos
Delta spreads
as worries grow
on inflation
Deaths and restrictions
increase in the middle of the electoral cycle
2 WEEKS, 4 DAYS,
UNTIL THERE
(CALENDAR DAYS)
Percentage changes of the S&P 500 during each period
Length of time for S&P 500 to regain peak levels after pandemic declines
The delta spreads like marigolds
grow above inflation
Deaths and restrictions
increase in the middle of the electoral cycle
Covid-19 jets
the world in chaos
NOV.-DEC. ’21
2 WEEKS, 4 DAYS, NEVER
(CALENDAR DAYS)
SEPT.-OCT. ’21
7 WEEKS TO RECOVER
SEPT.-NOV. ’20
10 WEEKS, 2 DAYS
FEB-AUG. ’20
25 WEEKS, 6 DAYS
Percentage change of the S&P 500 during each period
Inventories have fluctuated widely since the emergence of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, once again raising concerns about the potential for a pandemic to harm the global economy.
This is the latest market turmoil since the Covid-19 outbreak about two years ago, with the virus repeatedly rocking Wall Street’s assumptions about whether people would shop, travel, or even show up. at work. Each new phase of the pandemic has brought new requirements for testing, border closures or warnings against public gatherings.
Much is still unknown about the Omicron variant, including the protection offered by vaccines. But financial markets have taken the news on the heels of previous epidemics.
It follows a pattern. Every episode of volatility caused by a pandemic in the stock market since February 2020 has been shorter than the previous one and followed by a rally to a new high. The S&P 500 until Monday had recouped almost all of its losses from its previous peak after officials announced the existence of Omicrons on November 26.
The stock market has often been a barometer of the course of the pandemic, tumbling past worrying milestones and rising as vaccinations and new treatments progress. But the two haven’t always kept pace, and Wall Streets’ performance has at times ignored the human toll of the pandemic, as it instead focused on other factors that could drive business profits, such as low interest rates and government spending.
Newly reported
Covid-19 case
worldwide
Newly reported Covid-19
daily cases around the world
New daily cases of Covid-19 reported around the world
FEB-MARCH 2020 When the epidemic reached a global scale and millions of people began to lose their jobs during the recession, the S&P lost more than a third of its value from its peak.
SEPT.-OCT. 2020 The number of cases has exploded and the death toll has continued to rise, fueling concerns that further restrictions could again squeeze the global economy. Coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election, the S&P came close to correction, a symbolic but worrying milestone on Wall Street.
MARCH-APRIL 2021 Even though the number of cases hit an all-time high, the stock market continued to climb steadily, supported by optimism behind the vaccine rollout.
SEPT.-OCT. 2021 The persistence of the Delta variant threatened the recovery as high inflation raised questions as to whether Federal Reserve officials would begin to scale back stimulus efforts.
NOV.-DEC. 2021 The emergence of the Omicron variant has rocked markets again, just as colder weather in many parts of the world has helped to spike cases.
FEB-MARCH 2020 When the epidemic reached a global scale and millions of people began to lose their jobs during the recession, the S&P lost more than a third of its value from its peak.
SEPT.-OCT. 2020 The number of cases has exploded and the death toll has continued to rise, fueling concerns that further restrictions could again squeeze the global economy. Coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election, the S&P came close to correction, a symbolic but worrying milestone on Wall Street.
MARCH-APRIL 2021 Even though the number of cases hit an all-time high, the stock market continued to climb steadily, supported by optimism behind the vaccine rollout.
SEPT.-OCT. 2021 The persistence of the Delta variant threatened the recovery as high inflation raised questions as to whether Federal Reserve officials would begin to scale back stimulus efforts.
NOV.-DEC. 2021 The emergence of the Omicron variant has rocked markets again, just as colder weather in many parts of the world has helped to spike cases.
FEB-MARCH 2020 When the epidemic reached a global scale and millions of people began to lose their jobs during the recession, the S&P lost more than a third of its value from its peak.
SEPT.-OCT. 2020 The number of cases has exploded and the death toll has continued to rise, fueling concerns that further restrictions could again squeeze the global economy. Coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election, the S&P came close to correction, a symbolic but worrying milestone on Wall Street.
MARCH-APRIL 2021 Even though the number of cases hit an all-time high, the stock market continued to climb steadily, supported by optimism behind the vaccine rollout.
SEPT.-OCT. 2021 The persistence of the Delta variant threatened the recovery as high inflation raised questions as to whether Federal Reserve officials would begin to scale back stimulus efforts.
NOV.-DEC. 2021 The emergence of the Omicron variant has rocked markets again, just as colder weather in many parts of the world has helped to spike cases.
Market recoveries from the pandemic-induced declines have been underpinned by the Federal Reserve’s actions to reduce borrowing costs and keep capital pumping through the financial system. Advances in vaccines and other treatments have helped soften market declines.
They also helped refocus attention on the prospects for economic recovery and growth, even as the number of cases continued to rise at least until a new development, such as the Omicron discovery, recalls the uncertainty the world still faces.
In recent weeks, Wall Street economists have started to downgrade their forecasts for economic growth, with some citing the impact the variant could have on the pace of the reopening. Many believe the main risk is that the new variant will exacerbate the lingering disarray in global supply chains.
If this results in tighter closures, it could force factories to close, exacerbating shortages of everything from cars to building materials. Already, these types of disruptions have been one of the main reasons why prices have risen much faster than economists expected, and the potential for the Federal Reserve to have to act to curb price gains. added to the recent market turmoil.
Sources 2/ https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/07/business/omicron-stock-market-covid.html The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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