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March F&O expiration could give limited market direction

March F&O expiration could give limited market direction

 


Indian stock markets are consolidating over the past five trading sessions after a smart recovery from panic lows. This week we will have the March F&O expiration which may give some direction to this limited market. So far the March expiry remains good for the market where Nifty and Sensex have gained more than 5% and generally the expiry tends to expire in the direction of the prevailing trend.

Global equity markets are also rebounding and showing signs of stabilizing, but uncertainties remain over the Russia-Ukraine issue which could continue to cause volatility in global markets. Crude oil prices have risen slightly again amid geopolitical issues and supply-side concerns and if it sees further strength, it could be cause for concern for Indian equity markets.

Technically, Nifty is consolidating between its 200-DMA and 100-DMA where 200-DMA is currently placed at the 17036 level while 100-DMA is placed at the 17340 level. If Nifty manages to hold above its 100-DMA, we can expect a rally towards the 17490/17640 levels while if Nifty slips below its 200-DMA then 16800 is a sacrosanct support level.

Bank Nifty is underperforming as it has a critical supply zone of 367,000 to 37,000, but 35,500 to 35,000 is a strong demand zone and we can expect a bounce from here, while if it slips below the 35,000 level, it may see selling pressure towards the 34,500-34,000 area. On the upside, 36000-36200 is an immediate resistance zone while if it manages to break above the 37000 level we can expect a massive short cover rally.

If we look at the derivative data, the Put-Call ratio stands at 0.94, which is slightly oversold, while the FII long exposure on the futures index stands at 53%, which is neutral. The OI distribution indicates a range of 17,000 to 17,500 and any decisive move from this range will dictate a new direction.

*Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

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Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/march-f-o-expiry-may-provide-direction-to-the-range-bound-market-11648359696168.html

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