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Perceived volatility as market awaits May inflation data




Stock market trading is expected to be volatile this week ahead of the release of May inflation data, which could give the central bank reason to raise rates again to control rising prices.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) improved 54.57 points or 0.81% to close at 6,741.40 on Friday, while the broader all-stock index rose by 20.73 points or 0.57% at 3,602.52.

Week over week, the PSEi is up 15.26 points from its close of 6,726.14 on May 27.

Online brokerage said the release of the May inflation report this week will be a priority for market participants as it may dictate the next policy move by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

It will be interesting to see how the consumer price index reacts from month to month as the oil situation, although still outside the pre-Russia-Ukraine baseline, has stabilized. over the past quarter, said in a report.

The brokerage said the market wanted to see the supply drivers of inflation from the past few months printed to differentiate from the election-related impact that could have abnormally inflated the figure.

Although the BSP chief has already expressed the possibility of another 25 basis point (bp) rate hike this month, any burst of entrenched inflation will make monetary policy unpredictable and thus disrupt stock and bond markets. , added

We could see the index rising over the coming week as technical conditions continue to be favourable. Selling pressure appears to have eased… Still, the release of economic data could lead to reactive moves that could boost volatility, China Bank Securities Corp. Research Director Rastine Mackie D said in an email. Mercado.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release May inflation data on Tuesday, June 7.

Analysts said inflation likely accelerated to above 5% last month as food and oil prices continued to climb due to disruptions in global supply chains.

A Business world A poll of 16 analysts gave a median estimate of 5.4% for May inflation, matching the midpoint of the BSP estimate of 5% at 5.8%.

If realized, it would be faster than April’s 4.9% and May 2021’s 4.1%. It would also be well above central banks’ 2-4% target for l ‘year.

Headline inflation last hit the 5% level in December 2018 and stood at 5.2% that month.

BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said last month that the central bank would likely raise its key interest rates by another 25 basis points in its next policy review on June 23, following a similar hike. momentum at its May 19 meeting to curb mounting inflationary pressures.

At the May meeting, the central bank revised its average inflation forecast for 2022 up to 4.6% from the previous forecast of 4.3%, above the target range of 2 to 4%. For 2023, BSP inflation forecasts have been raised to 3.9% from 3.6% previously.

For the week ahead, China Bank Securities Mr. Mercado and placed the PSEis support level at 6,660 and resistance between 6,850 and 6,900. Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson




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