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US stock market: is it the right time for long-term investors to invest now?




TO ‘time the market is never a recommended strategy for retail investors. However, after a stock market crash or major market correction, when the valuation of major stocks drops significantly, there is an opportunity for investors to hold on. Already, the stock market crash of 2022 has impacted several highly rated stocks in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices. As economic conditions continue to remain sloppy with inflation still unchecked and macro indicators not either more favorable. But the risk-reward ratio for long-term investors is high for those who now venture into the markets with a proper plan.

Mark Haefele Chief Investment Officer Global Wealth Management in a recent monthly note indicates that short-term uncertainty remains elevated, but this year’s sell-off has created investment opportunities for longer-term investors. Here are some excerpts from the report.

Also Read: Market Update: US Futures Rally Ahead of Jobs Data; Bank of England raises rates

Central bankers continue to speak harshly on inflation, but markets have largely dropped concerns about rising prices as the risk of over-tightening and recession has become more evident. What does this mean for investors today? In the near term, we expect the risk/reward ratio of broad equity indices to be moderate. Stocks anticipate a soft landing, but the risk of a deeper collapse in economic activity is high.

But what about investors with a longer-term view? We believe that a combination of below-average equity valuations, above-average returns and post-peak private equity vintages will result in stronger long-term returns for diversified portfolios.

Also read: AMTD Digital, just another meme stock with a market cap down $100 billion in one day?

After a 26% decline in valuations over the past 12 months, the S&P 500 is now trading at levels consistent with annualized returns in a healthy range of 79% over the next decade. The yields available on the bond markets have improved significantly this year. And in the alternative, growth funds created following massive public market sales have historically generated better returns than those of previous vintages.




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